It really is hard to tell
1) most of the times we get drunk and on drugs together we just end up arguing capitalism v socialism so he has inherent biases personally
2) i cant read spanish and don't know much about spanish news so its harder to verify sources he gives
From what i can see if this strike goes ahead and has any density, then its basically the test of legitimacy, if its a flop then Evo wins, if it a third of the population turn out out he probably still wins, if its 40 or 50 he has a problem, if its more than that he is fucked.
Thing is, even according to the IMF Bolivia is doing extremely well, particularly for where it is. His policies are working and he has a large base in the countryside, with the ethnics of the situation on his side also. You can also bet it is these people who have the shittier jobs, which are coincidentally the most important for keeping the country going, transport, which in bolivia is probably a lot of trucks, for example, farming, which is gonna be mostly in the countryside, where his main support is.
The other guy, Mesas, is from a Party called the "Revolutionary left front" which is funny because if you go on the wikipedia it literally says their ideology is reformist, third way and social democratic. So he's essentially a Blairite. His vote therefore probably comes from the managerial middle class and given the situation, probably a fair amount of petit bourg, these people striking doesn't make too much of a difference
i don't know much about what the army and military are saying. Supposedly police in some towns are saying they wont enforce this result, whatever that means, but he didnt show any evidence of that.