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/crisis/ General Comrade 08/05/2019 (Mon) 07:43:55 No. 8552
DOW/Market Watch Thread
monitoring the market, trends, fluctuations, etc.
>>877215 I was thinking more in relation to 2008 and how China pretty much saved the world through domestic consumption, but you're right
>>877142 If Spain absorbs Gibraltar I hope it's under a leftist or socdem government. The cognitive dissonance by the """patriots""" would be exquisite.
Partial lockdown confirmed back for Britain, for 1/6th of the population. Restricitive measures are being adopted in France and Spain too. Is the ride starting again?
>>877624 God I hope so. The news has been getting boring lately
>>877222 Spoiler: The bongs will fight for it
>>877624 Let's hope so my nig
>>877222 That would be based as fuck
>>877660 It wouldn't, the Brits would fight tooth and nail for it, further wrecking Spain and entrenching nationalist fervour in the UK.
>>877637 Falkland War part 2: Bong Boogaloos
>>877668 If Uk will go to war for Gibraltar and win, fascism will take power in Spain. If they will lose, then their empire will lose one of their key pieces with unpredictable political consequences.
>>877142 Hasn’t Brexit already “gone through” since early this year?
>>878666 The correct line IMHO it is revolutionary defeatism in the Uk and support for the Army in Spain, with Spanish comrades that will have to get ready to go underground if SHTF rapidly though.
How much more can this house of cards we call the American economy take? Will the onset of mass homelessness finally break the system?
I just want a new war in Europe. Eurofaggots have gotten complacent.
>>878676 Fed can keep printing worthless papers because US can keep exporting inflationx
What even is the British motivation for keeping the Falklands in our year of 2020? Is it simply demographic loyalty or whatever one would call it? As I understand, demographically speaking the people living there largely herald from the British Isles. Or is it something else?
>>878684 finally
>>878684 WeChat banned from September 20, Tiktok banned from November 12 (after the election, lol)
>>878684 This ban is the best case scenario. Worst case scenario was that the imperialists gave it to private businesses in america.
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>>878684 I approve but only because I hate zoomers
>>878684 Is this accelerationism?
>>878684 They're selling it to Oracle to be used for zoomer indoctrination. At least with China owning it they wouldn't algorithmically promote whatever dumb shit the feds strong arm them to promote.
>>878751 Trump admin said the deal doesn't meet their security requirements. Have until Nov 12 to address it.
>>878887 Downloads will be prohibited from App Stores staring Sunday as well, the company can continue operating until the November date.
>>878684 rip in peace gen z
>>878676 It won't end in our lifetimes, getting in trouble doesn't mean it's ending.
Trump will ban TikTok on Sunday! Zoomers on suicide watch! Other thing to focus on is the Federal Government’s antitrust suit against Google.
>>878952 If you can expect to see 2070 roll around you’ll live to see burgerism go away
>>878683 “Muh Empire” spooks Anglos don’t wanna accept that they’re getting downgraded back to just being a small, wet, cold island off the coast of Europe beset by internal tribalism
>>878952 wrong
>>878952 >>879472 specifically read socialism or extinction by ted reese. a good chunk of it is dedicated to showing that capitalism has a definite end, and there are strong indicators that we are very close to it or perhaps already in the beginning of the end since shit has to hit the fan before we hit theoretical limits.
>>878952 dude antartica is literally coming apart, we're fucked without socialism https://archive.is/WvQyH
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>>878684 >zoomers BTFO
>>878678 Just watch there be a kosovo style situation in the shetlands
>>879516 I dunno, sounds like we're fucked with socialism and dead without, and something-something it's easier to imagine the end of the world then the end of capitalism something-something
>>878676 Well that depends where appearances end and the real thing begins. I mean, with unemployment at least 20%, and using a fudy definition at that, America is already one of the worst economies in the world, losing only to, besides micronations and overseas territories, Namibia, Nigeria, Palestine, Kosovo and South Africa. Considering we simply don't know what the real number is, it might be the worst. But mass suffering doesn't matter for capital and Porky is accumulating dividendies just fine, so the economy is going perfectly. Seriously tho, what do you mean about the system breaking? It seems to me that America has just got started on the biggest economic crash in history, it's just that no one is behaving like it. The actual collapse is already here, it's just missing the "feel" of one. But this is an age when appearances can be more important than the real thing.
>>879479 Damn that was such a good book
>>882132 >Seriously tho, what do you mean about the system breaking? It seems to me that America has just got started on the biggest economic crash in history, it's just that no one is behaving like it. The actual collapse is already here, it's just missing the "feel" of one. But this is an age when appearances can be more important than the real thing. Well that begs the question of how to tear the mask of normalcy off and show the world the truth?
>>882063 man I love Fisher but the conditions now are so radically different from 2009 that I'm starting to be a bit unsure about the conclusions in Capitalist Realism. It was a book produced in the death of the left 1990-2010 pre Occupy when it seems neolibs had won forever; shit now seems to be ready to come apart at any moment, dilectics are spinning wildly
>>882132 Reddit: U B I B B B I B U
>>878684 >banning wechat lol so that's that for apple and android devices in China we Harmony now
<Trump agrees in Oracle-ByteDance agreement. >Tik-Tok stays. Downloads stays, etc, etc, etc stays.
>>883357 It only bans it in the US. It only screws over students and expats.
>>883549 <I have approved it in concept It will get canned by Pompeo.
>>883582 they remove it from all app stores regardless, to avoid secondary sanctions
>>882142 That's a question which has long plagued us. A couple of years ago, I figured out that Porky's grasp on the superstructure is total so we would have to wait until the system itself collpsed. I hope I'll be proven wrong, but I still can't see a way to override it even as it has started crumbling, our message is finally starting to find attentive listeners but it's thanks to the quickly-degrading material conditions as opposed to any new factor on our side. I can think of only one single way which very theoretically might work at truly amplifying our reach. Seeing as our great medium, mass organizations, are virtually dead (fuck, any organization involving more than one person is), it's time to change gears and go to the one medium Porky can't subvert which is to proselityze in small groups or one-on-one in a coordinated manner. It's easier said than done, obviously, but as far as I can see, we simply have no choice, difficult as this may be. Since we can't override Porky's noise, we should try to udnercut it. We have long wondered how we could undo the disinformation fed by television, then internet came along but its very format favors disinformation even more, and as Qanon demonstrate, what could be a great tool for cultural elevation has instead become an immense white noise generator, spawning cults by lunatics whos wear they hear God's voice in the static. In the absence of mass organizations, the only way to undo this informational damage would be to talk to the masses on a first name basis, as a trustworthy relation is the only way to get people to listen to your dissent instead of just accepting the message regurgitated from TVs, computers and cellphones. You no doubt have met some people whose beliefe in moronic ideas actually grew stronger as you tried to debunk them, right? This is actually a documented psychological phenomenon, and Porky is exploiting this (and many other unconscious quirks of ours) to drag mankind down. The only way to circumvent is for them to hear the message we already have, but from someone whose judgment they trust. The admittedly cringeworthy word I have been using for this is revangelism, as this direct contact is exactly how Christianism started ("For where two or three are gathered together in my name, there am I in the midst of them.") This is the only way I can see we can get everyone to live in the same reality again, at least without the complete collapse of the existing order happening first, and I would rather avoid that, I think you can understand. If this could be done, it would in fact serve multiple functions. It could turn out to be a great tactic in the long run, because as capitalism has pulverized social bonds, this could allow us to build them back -- which would be in itself a blow against alienation -- while educating about socialism down at the most basic levels of society. Since unions and mass parties are, at least for the moment, no longer an option, we would have to get started on the most simple things, which affect the day to day of the people and help them cope with the ills that contemporary capitalism is forcing upon them. Things like neighborhood associations (something which actually tackles issues in a community instead of being real estate police) and remedial classes for kids, and even things as simple as fitness groups and book clubs. People are completely starved of social nets. The surprise collapsed opened the way for vitally important solidarity, as poor areas will be in terrible need of food security (striking deals directly with producers to cut middlemen, hopefully set up community canteens) and homelessness mitigation (organized and well-managed house-sharing arrangements, for example). If I'm allowed to dream big, this could be the seed for the future would-be soviets, and starting at this level, it would be planted very, very deep. A possible way to ensure a bottom-upwards socialist drive and some uniformity in basic ideology -- imagine, for example, if the radicalization of Russians which preceded the revolution had been mostly made by a single group (or multiple groups with the same ideology); it could have avoided the fractures which doomed the revolution in the long run. But anyway, I'm getting too far ahead of myself here.
>>883778 You're 100% right anon. Each new militant should have as an objective to get a new person in. Each one teach one.
>>883778 community aid sounds good, one nit pick how do you coordinate all these small groups ?
>>883778 Worthless, utterly worthless, just doomer nonsense If we can only turn the tens of millions we need into socialists one by one we communists should all just fucking kill ourselves because that task is flat out impossible and because communism is worthless as particularist, individualist nonsense.
>>884472 Is not about turning them one by one. It's about potentially doubling our numbers fast, and then do it again and again.
>>883778 multi level marketing politics, it's worth a shot
>>883778 >>884062 >>884469 >>884673 >>884750 Do we start a cult? Imagine the boomer outrage it would be hilarious! >commie cults indoctrinating our children with commie cats!
>>883778 Good post. since were on the topic of being creative about organization, historically communist parties/uprisings have financed themselves through many kinds of unsavory means. Bolsheviks robbed banks and also got some gibs from the germans, chinese got gibs from the soviets and also sold opium. And we're gonna need some kind of funding. So how do we feel about financing communist endeavours through idk crypto trading?
>>885248 BASED BASED BASED Always thought about funding leftist activities via trading.
>>885248 >>885287 currency was the first communist institution >only arises as a result of advanced social interaction, is the abstraction of the collective output of the community, has no innate utility outside of it
>>885248 >>885287 you want to do a pyramid scheme ? >>885340 Communism is about abolishing money.
>>885364 yes because the money is no longer necessary. money itself isn't bad but can be replaced by better entities over time. the bad part is the markets that come along with it.
>>885248 The top of that pyramid scheme is already full. Maybe selling contraband would be better.
>>885073 t. posadas gang >>885248 Ideally communists get revenue from party member contributions, but that's severely limited given that commies are, by definition, generally poor as fuck; Robbing banks and shit is just going to be bad illegalism and frankly this isn't the 1900s when a car was enough to make the cops, so it's liable to be a drain on resources more than anything. Bernie's campaign and the bail funds proved that plenty of libs and shit are willing to contribute money to a cause they perceive as just, so with the right kinds of messaging, we could definitely get donations going from fellow travellers. As for illegal means, crypto and stuff could definitely be a good place to raise resources discreetly, but I haven't the foggiest idea how to do that. it'd be nice if we could just shoot an email to Xi and say "hey give money for the revolution" though
>>884472 >If we can only turn the tens of millions we need into socialists one by one we communists should all just fucking kill ourselves because that task is flat out impossible and because communism is worthless as particularist, individualist nonsense. You schizo, he is talking about how online activism is useless.
>>885287 >Always thought about funding leftist activities via trading. yeah same. Im tryna get into it but you really gotta learn shit for that. >>885382 What do you mean? >>885386 >Ideally communists get revenue from party member contributions, but that's severely limited given that commies are, by definition, generally poor as fuck right i think if you look at communist insurrections/movements historically fees from the membership are not enough. And, you know, you can't just fleece ur already poor members.
>>885460 stalin onlyfans when
>>885380 >money without markets makes no sense >money itself isn't bad money without abuse and coercion is impossible.
>>885564 >money without abuse and coercion is impossible. money emerged in communities as a result of a need to exchange goods and services without a barter system, settling on a resource medium that was valuable enough to be considered a unit of account for the community at large. this purpose was historically served by gold and silver which have no value other than as decoration outside of these interactions. the markets of money itself, the concentration of money in the hands of those that practiced exploitation, and the ability of those that produced monetary resources to manipulate the market lead to its negative impacts on society. the distribution of money can be efficiently allocated in the modern day by a digital planning system that credits and debits each individual their appropriate share without the distortions that individual hording as the result of market interactions historically generated.
>>884062 >Each one teach one. "Each one teach one, thousand petal lotus. Elohim comes deep from the house of essence potent." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xq0-YVYrFR4
Sadly, One Letter Perfectly Captures the Recovery >In the early days of 2009 following the Great Financial Crisis, I received an extremely silly email from a booker for a television program who asked: “What single letter would you use to predict the recovery?” >My response noted there were 26 letters that humans could use to form words and even sentences to express complex thoughts. I explained that it was wrong to dumb down something as intricate as the economy to a letter of the alphabet or some other symbol. The correct thing to do was to use prior recoveries as an historical guide while acknowledging our inability to accurately forecast the future. Why, we could even add numbers to those words, explaining probabilistic assessments and possible future outcomes that are so superior to predictions! >The email I received back was priceless: “So, no letter?” >I was reminded of this exchange courtesy of the many recent debates and discussions about the potential for “U” and “V” and “L” and “W” shaped recoveries. My favorite is the “Nike swoosh” recovery, which may very well be a letter somewhere in the Milky Way galaxy, but here on earth represents instead the triumph of brand marketing rather than an alphanumeric example. >The letter “K” has become more popular of late in discussions about the outlook for the economy. 1 If you were to describe the 11th letter in the English alphabet to someone who has never seen it, you would note that it is distinguished by a bold vertical line, from the midpoint of which begins two rightward traversing lines, one slanting 45 degrees upward from the horizontal, and the other 45 degrees downward. >This description of the economy fairly captures the two separate paths of the recovery. The line heading upward symbolizes those parts of the economy that have benefited from pandemic: Technology (Apple Inc., Alphabet Inc., Microsoft Corp.), general merchandise retailers (Target, Walmart), entertainment (Netflix Inc., Walt Disney Co., YouTube), Biotech and Pharmaceuticals (Moderna Inc., Johnson & Johnson & Johnson, Merck & Co., Pfizer Inc., AstraZeneca PLC) work from home firms (Slack Technologies Inc., Zoom Video Communications Inc.) and online retailers (Amazon.com Inc., Shopify Inc.). >The line heading downward symbolizes, well, pretty much everyone else. We see this reflected in how various S&P 500 Index sector funds have performed. Technology (Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund), Communications (Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund), and Consumer Discretionary (Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund) are up 31.6%, 18.4%, and 16.9%. The three worst performing broad sectors, Energy (Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund), Financials (Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund), and Utilities (Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund) are down 40.3%, 18.7%, and 8.2%. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-09-02/the-k-shaped-recovery-is-real-and-it-perfectly-captures-the-economy
>>885601 >commodity money emerged from barter maybe, maybe not. Most historical evidence points towards introduction of money as an imposition. >the distribution of money can be efficiently allocated in the modern day by a digital planning system that credits and debits each individual their appropriate share without the distortions that individual hording as the result of market interactions historically generated. skip money, use the computer to calculate how to allocate resources and labor directly. Use multiple accounting systems, resources and environmental footprint can be rations, work can be labor vouchers, maybe have accounting for other stuff. Computers don't need to reduce everything to a single thing, they work better with more details.
>>885996 You can put all money on to a crypto blockchain first and then activate the hidden code to convert all point of sale systems to a labour voucher mechanism. Boom socialism.
>>886048 cyber blanqism
>>886052 It may be the only option. Unless you think cyber marxism can exist without political persecution.
>>884469 I would expect an umbrella organization of multiple groups since there's no big one, and this mass organization is how mass organization truly consolidate themselves anyway. Also, America has a rather immense number of effective activist groups which aren't socialistic or even try to "remain apolitical", and this larger network could both benefit from their experience, improve their reach and, of course, radicalize them. >>884472 >Worthless, utterly worthless, just doomer nonsense <doesn't offer an alternative >>885073 Which does remind me of so-called high demand groups, a half-technical, half-euphemistical term for cult and similar organizations. For reasons obvious, they thrive like flies on shit during times of distress, and America just entered one without an end in sight. Not to mention it has always been rife with groups like those even during prosperous times. You Burgers might want to keep this in mind, in case a friend or relative starts drifting towards such traps. >>885248 >>885287 >>885460 Well financing will always be our greatest obstacle, I guess. The Black Panthers worked miracles in this sense, they might provide valuable lessons. Part of it came from drugs, which, despite providing the existing system with more opportunity for more deathly confrontations against people in their sleep (RIP in F Hampton), also invites all sorts of trouble due to its nature. Managing such an activity would require an extremely disciplined group, which the American left seems to lack right now. That reminds me that Hampton managed to steer gangs into radicalizing. This segues into a point we talked about tho I think it was in the /usapol/ thread, about these youth gangs indeed having potential as they rise more out of alienation and disenfranchisement than actual criminal enterprise. Other criminal organizations, however, are a no-go, and historically tend to be "instinctivelly" reactionary. >crypto trading Quite what do you mean here? I suppose acting like middlemen in those stupid trades might be a way to leech off of these piglets, but what else does it offer?
>>886407 Oh, one thing I forgot to add. Due to the absurdly high unemployment, there will be plenty of people with spare time to work on this strategy "full-time" as it were, so long as the organization in charge can provide for them. Of course, this shouldn't mean recruitment in exchange for room and board or somesuch, which, besides being absurdly exploitative, would undermine the whole effort. Revangelism should be done by true believers, to stick to religion anaogies, or by professional revolutionaries, in our jargon.
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>>886407 Fix'd
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>>886575 Now that's a meme I haven't seen n a long time.
>>886575 Based classic meme
Good red morning As of 9:45 AM EDT: SP500: −62,21 (-1,87%) DOW: −600,54 (-2,17%)
>>888062 He's not lying, fellas
>>888062 Coming in here to tell you nerds that I told you so, but none of you losers care for actual analysis: >We are AT the limit (where debt can no longer expand market activity). The central banks cannot credibly support the markets any more, because the money it is lending is generating zero to negative returns on investment. The only value is speculative, based on central bank purchases of assets. If it continues buying them, it is only paying for non-existent activity -- GARBAGE assets. The ONLY direction is down.
>>888076 original post >>885531
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>>888076 Relevant graph if you know you know.
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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-is-at-the-start-of-a-selloff-says-veteran-trader-larry-williams-2020-09-18?mod=mw_quote_news >Attention, investors: Spooky times are on the way for the stock market. >You should trust your instincts if you’re nervous because of the wobbly action in the S&P 500 Index SPX, -2.04%, Nasdaq COMP, -1.46% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -2.43% since these indices got slammed in early September. >Starting right about now, the stock market will see a significant and sustained selloff through about Oct. 10. Don’t look to gold as a hedge. It’s riding for a fall, too, despite the widespread misbelief that it protects you against losses in weak stock markets.
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11:30AM EDT: SP500: −82.29 (-2.48%) DOW: −886.20 (-3.20%)
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Are we going -1000?
>>888300 DO EEEEEET
Will it ever happen?
VIX +4.55 +17.62% Bring it on baby
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>>888107 And just in time for Halloween
>>888320 It has happened. The rate of profit is zero. See >>888093 the rate of return on compounding interest without any underlying real growth is capped at Euler's number. That is a fundamental mathematical constraint. All financial models have assumed continuing growth and have accumulated debt to that end.
>>888107 look at this guy's face lmao. He's seen the abyss and he's laughing at it.
Hot damn that's a good drop off. Are we about to see capitulation by next month? >>888107
>>888465 Does capitulation mean a sell-off of stocks? Sorry if I'm not well-versed in the language used in this kind of economics.
I know there's hype for the Dow selloff and stuff but keep an eye on Turkey these days. The lira is weak AF and if something (even a Soros tier speculative move) happens they will have HUGE problems.
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>>888093 >>888340 Can I get a rundown for a brainlet? How do we know the rate of profit is zero? How did this come to be? What will be the realistic consequences of this?
>>888578 It's not zero yet, but it is falling fairly rapidly and approaching zero. Check out the latest Michael Roberts article. https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/
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>>885564 > Leftypol is almost self aware It's like you can't have civilization without coercion Anarchs-Primitivism is a shit alternative. Any "peaceful/hippie" commune is a lie and turns into a shithole.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia They are doing everything they can to keep this shambling corpes from tearing itself by the seams
If Congress doesn't pass a bill by Sept 30th, the US government shuts down, and the selloff could get worse. The GOP is really bitching about "Muh No Farm Aid". If Pelosi had the stones, she'd refuse them farm aid, military spending until a coronavirus stimulus, climate change, higher minimum wage and more was passed.
>>888578 Roberts' method is reliable but a bit speculative; the easiest way to perceive this is through rates of return on government assets - interest is really low, so government bonds are yielding almost negative rates, which means parking your money there will pretty much get you a net loss from inflation or breaking even at best. For stonks, there has been insane overvaluation, and even the most disconnected speculation has to be tied to actual assets. Given world collapse in demand, there simply cannot be any growth in profit rates, because we already had overproduction - now the the overproduction is so great that the margins become minuscule and profit stays unrealized. tl;dr: economy is super tight and there is too much cash floating around in order that printing money would make any difference because there is no reliable place to put money >>888697 poomp gonna run until elections, no way trump is going to let a crash simply happen
>>888578 >two widget sellers next to each other >in order to compete, they have to do something better >usually price >in order to cut price, you cut wages, quality, and last profit >widget 1 cuts profit, then widget 2 has to cut profit >ad infinum till zero Something like that?
>>888704 that, the reduction of labor in production which is the only real source of saving, and both produce maximum amount of widgets which generates overproduction and unrealized profits
>>888708 To rephrase to check that I'm understanding: >porky cuts workers first >max out widgets because they want the most money >too many widgets to sell ??
>>888700 >If Congress doesn't pass a bill by Sept 30th, the US government shuts down, and the selloff could get worse 9 days to pass a bill? Shit is fucked and I love it >The GOP is really bitching about "Muh No Farm Aid". The GOP has always been retarded so nothing new here >If Pelosi had the stones, she'd refuse them farm aid, military spending until a coronavirus stimulus, climate change, higher minimum wage and more was passed. <If
>>888704 What >>888708 said except the production of widgets has been disguised as the production of financial assets. There is also a price floor because of minimum wage since the population can consume at the bare minimum what they have been paid, however that is broken through by unemployment. They will lay people off to cut down their losses but then that eliminates the very wages that enable any demand for goods at all.
>>888721 Thank you!
>>888717 pretty much at the beginning: 5 workers produce 1 widget now: 2 workers produce 1 widget price per widget goes down, becomes more competitive- each company produces the maximum amount of widgets it can, with both companies producing at max there are way more widgets than demand for widgets (at the very least twice as much, but really much more), both go bankrupt from having spent a lot of money on widgets that can't possibly sell (as goes the logic) >>888721 yep, unemployment destroys demand so the widgets being produced before (already too many) become an impossible deluge to sell
>>888721 They have also delayed the process by loosening lending but all borrowing is is spending out of your future income. With incomes stagnant or jobs lost completely they have hit the limit of debt for the average worker.
Thank you guys for helping me out :)
>>888733 also there is no growth to service the debt or to generate profit, so debt just becomes a bloated figure in the balance sheet without any purpose; continual spending on stonks can keep them up for a while (quantitative easing), but as soon as it becomes obvious that stonks won't go up anymore smart porkies dump their assets, nuke stonks, and them buy low with the difference, then liquidate all assets of the company and get a big fat paycheck nuking actual profitable businesses
>>888755 Yep. And that's why it all hinges on the stimulus because the government will be the final source of demand, to shift liabilities from the private sector to the public sector. However because the long-term pattern will still be crippled debt-servicing capacity, either the government has to default, hyperinflate (an effective default), or seize wealth from the rich to redeploy to the poor -- essentially income has to be redistributed from the asset holders to the majority of the population for economic growth to resume. There is no alternative.
What will the arrival of the 3pm gang bring?
>>888798 Probably more selloffs. Elon Musk is launching his new battery tomorrow. I hope it fails. I wonder, if somehow, 260 billionaires died today, and from Tuesday to Friday 260 billionaires each day died, would that be enough to wipe out enough of Porky that capitalism could collapse?
>>888700 Is this related to Sc boogaloo?
>>888812 I'm not sure if the deaths of billionaires would do much to displace capitalism. They would be eagerly replaced by petit-bourgies as long as capitalism still exists.
>>888812 >>888822 Assuming the money has to go somewhere else that might actually be the only thing to stop the downward spiral
>>888812 if inheritance taxes were still a thing it would be spectacular; as it were, it ties up assets until the legal stuff is sorted out but doesn't really change anything, the money would just change hands
>>888755 Lastly the growth of the debt has been politically impossible to control because the rich want to keep asset prices high forever. The only reason to ever borrow is if there are future growth opportunities, however if everything in the country is overpriced because the rich have bet everything up and want to maintain supremacy over the working class forever, the costs of production incurred by their own hand means they cannot invest in anything that isn't a bubble. Bubbles don't generate value therefore unemployment will steadily increase. If the government intervenes by raising interest rates, borrowing by workers will stop causing demand to crash and unemployment to rise along with an asset price crash. The rich have to be eaten for the poor to live, the government is run by the rich so the poor must starve.
>>888858 pretty much this. the only thing I would add is that one way we can easily notice that the bubble is disconnected from the actual economy is by comparing inflation of consumer goods (modest to high) with inflation of financial assets (unbelievably high, even bullshit collectibles like card games and such are going through the roof), which means the government poomp never even indirectly reaches the masses
Can going to war against a country that was isolated from the market still help?
>>888892 >inb4 dengists start s/e/e/t/h/ing
>>888889 They have basically transferred the cut costs from physical goods (except luxuries) to increased costs in services: insurance, healthcare, housing, education, and technology. Those are not reflected in CPI inflation which is why governments insist inflation is low, the economy is no longer based on production. Mainstream economists thought Marxian concepts would not apply to an advanced economy, that the combination of financialization and digital innovation heralded a new age of limitless free-market capitalism. They were wrong.
>>888917 Can open new profitable markets for short term exploitation but doesn't really do much for the overall problem. There pretty much is nowhere on earth that is isolated from the market anymore, except sanctioned places and those can't change without war ad aren't big enough to make a change.
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>>888917 The war economy can give an extra gust of wind for the country's sails but that can keep things going for so long
>>888917 Only if the war is prolonged and indecisive in its outcome, Afghanistan tier but at least double the size.
>>888917 War Keynesianism is trash.
>>888947 At that point a serious attrition could kick in though and the instability would shift from the economic to the political side.
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>>888945 *but can only keep things going for so long*
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>>888961 God I hate the deliriously demented porkers
>>888961 L O L O L <Report: Global Banks, Including HSBC, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Have Laundered Trillions In Illicit Cash https://www.ibtimes.com/report-global-banks-including-hsbc-deutsche-bank-jpmorgan-have-laundered-trillions-3049271
>>888892 based and fuck-the-dengists-pilled
>>889017 big news: banks launder money - "how surprising", said nobody. Though seeing it stark naked in the news is quite impressive
>>889032 They can blame it for the crash.
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>>888888 Checking numbers is the most retarded thing on IBs but this one gets a pass as a message by our Lord Marl Gargz and his saint prophet Lemmin.
>>889045 yeah, I saw that on marketwatch: https://archive.is/dr44Y >What’s driving the market? >U.S. and European equities tumbled as a rising number of COVID-19 cases across several European economies sparked fears of renewed restrictions on activity, a development that would slow the global economic recovery’s pace. >London Mayor Sadiq Khan said on Monday that he and local officials will propose a round of new restrictions to stem the coronavirus’ spread. Pubs in England could be subject to early closes to tackle rising infections, while some bars and restaurants in hard-hit areas could be shut completely, according to a report from the Sun. Meanwhile, the regional government overseeing Madrid ordered a lockdown for some areas of Spain’s capital. >(...)U.S. and European bank shares fell sharply after BuzzFeed News and other outlets published articles alleging that the world’s most powerful banks continued doing business with customers they suspected of engaging in money laundering and other illicit activities. >(...)Investors also weighed the potential market implications of Supreme Court Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death, which looks poised to spark an intense battle over the nomination of her successor, complicating an already bitter presidential election race. >(...)Investors continued to watch for signs of the much-discussed rotation from high-growth shares to more beaten-down stocks in industries like retail and energy. Tech-related stocks, which had led the market’s rally back from the March pandemic lows, have flagged in recent weeks, leading the market back down from all-time highs. >But Monday’s selloff was led by more growth-sensitive sectors, reflecting the fickle swings in market expectations around an uncertain U.S. economic recovery.
>>889045 But how many times can they blame "crony capitalism/corporatism" before people refuse to accept it, because I believe people are getting real tired of the excuse
>>889068 5 ingredients of market crash: >excessive debt >cessation of credit flows >government confusion >big scandal >panic
>>889076 seems like the happening will actually happen, which though expected is always surprising when it actually happens. Guess we can expect nightmarish worsening of living conditions of most of the population, impossible unemployment and probably extreme civil unrest, the perfect Mao "excellent situation" moment
>>889095 >the perfect Mao "excellent situation" moment A moment that should be capitalized and not squandered
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>>889129 bog poomped
>>889129 Above 27k just barely
>>889129 >the dow 30 and not the s&p 500 as a measurement of the economy
<US DOW Down 500 pts. after fear of worsening pandemics numbers.
>>889181 Okay, where's your s&p 500 info?
>>889195 https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx The S&P 500 is 500 medium to large sized companies. If those fall together it's a lot worse than the 30 biggest in the Dow falling.
>>889194 wrecked. Where is porky-poster, I want to see his reaction to not having reached 30k two times in a year.
>>889265 Porky poster killed himself long ago
>>888693 >It's like you can't have civilization without coercion This is why giving up or political nihilism are the last stage for authentic, consistent(ish) anarchists. >>889320 porky poster an heros every time a market closes on red.
>>889265 >>889314 >>889320 Rest in Piss Porky Poster
>>890145 haven't checked into the crisis thread for a while, are we in for another crash or just slow decline?
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>>890145 down quite a bit too could be a -1500+ point sell off tomorrow
>>888079 >zero to negative returns Just money trading hands, isn't it? I give you a dollar and you hand me back and sho on and sho on, there's the current stock market. Nothing is getting invest because there's nothing to invest on, or more appropriately, nothing profitable to invest on before the "market correction" represented by the crash actually happens. This is the part where the government was supposed to splurge to, if not create new investments or subsidizing old ones, at least increasing welfare to rekindle the consumer cycle and help speed up the "market correction". Instead the government gave a few peanuts to a country where an entire fucking 8th of the population is at danger of becoming homeless, and handed away trillions to privileged megaporkies which didn't manage to run from the collapse quick enough. Either The Man is adamant that his security forces can contain a people being deliberately denied any aid, or said denial is a genuine fuck-up on his part. >>888093 >>888340 pic related But this isn't the final crash, is it? Porky will probably find ways to keep it limping along even while rioters set fire to the exchange building.
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>>890145 >/biz/ right now
>>890228 our system is called "pretending that rich people know what they are doing"
>>888585 Where are you getting the Euler thing? Roberts' blog doesn't mention it at all. >>888481 Capitulation is admitting the whatever in question is a lost cause and cutting your losses. In the case of stocks, it likely entails a sell-off. >>888700 >the US government shuts down Can it return at any time or is there some recess to be waited or what? >until a coronavirus stimulus, climate change, higher minimum wage and more was passed Bruh, stones don't matter, she has no intention whatsoever of approving any of those things. Withholding the stimulus, in particular, might help fuck with Trump's popularity. Not that it would.
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>>888702 >no way trump is going to let a crash simply happen Boy, wouldn't it be a shame if a snubbed egomaniac were to enact revenge on a country which didn't re-elect him? And then sicced the rabid cult behind him against his enemies as the cause of their economic misfortune?
>>890336 Welp, time to put my 401k into Chinese anime waifu gacha game companies.
>>890336 >>890376 pretty sure you cant take out your 401k until you are like 55 dude
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>>890336 I posted this like three hours after the news broke. fucking nobody even talked about it. some tweets, but no serious discussion.
>>890426 can. u tldr
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>>890426 Are you suggesting Trump expects to lose? I find it hard to believe Biden will win. When Biden goes on campaign, he loses support. If there's ever a debate, Biden is done for.
>>890379 There's an emerging markets index fund and if you read the details it's like 40% tencent 30% alibaba.
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Have you taken the Dengpill yet?
>>890561 That's the Xi pill If things had stayed on the Deng path without Xi's course correction things wouldn't be so rosy for the People's Republic There's a reason Deng said that he would consider himself lucky if history rated him at 50/100
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>>890473 >tfw just in time to watch US burn
>>888917 Imperialist wars in the classical sense can't quite exist anymore, I think. Their point was to secure production and consumer markets. The former is already owned by like a dozen megaporkies, because almost all 3rd world countries enshrine "foreign investment" as the holy grail of an economy. The latter, consumer markets, poses an interesting conundrum. There actually is a lot of potential expansion for growth and giving a boost to the rate of profit by developing the 3rd world, whch has been "developing" for the better part of a century yet didn't get a second closer to development. The vast majority of the world is still to hit the consumerist plateau which the developed world did as neoliberalism started. There's immense potential there. The problem here, ignoring all issues of intra-class resistance to this, is one of the many contradictions of capitalism: it wouldn't be profitable, at least not for long. Their development would throw the prices and availability of their primary commodities upwards, thus raising their prices all over, thus decreasing purchasing power all over and sending the whole thing out of whack. Capitalism just plain requires exploitation to exist, and it's important to note that it's simply not possible to assure that the lowest class at least has a dignified life, because a dignified man does not subject himself to exploitation willingly. For capital to accumulate, someone who makes a dollar has to receive less than a dollar, and the higher his need for that job in the face of destitution, the fewer cents he's willing to accept. Exploitation requires the threat of starvation, and that's a threat which can't remain a bluff.
>>890379 I vaguely recall something about allowing some 401k withdraw on account of coronavirus relief. >>890426 You know how it is nowadays, if the MSM doesn't say it, it never happened. Quite why they're not using this to attack him, however, is the subject of speculation. Maybe they're implicitly calling his bluff whereas crying wolf would cause too much mayhem? >>890473 I suppose his first election might have taught him to plan for the unexpected scenario, eh?
>>890567 What did he fundamentally change?
>>890567 >There's a reason Deng said that he would consider himself lucky if history rated him at 50/100 Where'd he say that? Also that may just be a humble statement, like "if I didn't do a shit job I'll consider that lucky
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Smart porkies gave up on 30k, time to see the world burn https://archive.is/BAAby >>890336 man this is so fucked up, probably will nuke the retirements of just about every boomer, which might just make them into gommies if they can overcome boomer brainwashing
The ride starts back up in about an hour. Better get ready.
>>890831 I miss the defeated screams from the trading floor. Stupid COVID.
>>890829 dont boomers still have massive homeownership?
>>890844 not with mortgages wringing their necks and no money inflow anymore
>>890844 who the fuck is going to have money to buy homes?
tesla's new battery is probably the deciding factor for today's market, so if it's underwhelming we may see small crash, if musk actually for once manages to deliver his promises then stonks will go up
>>890846 no i mean paid off mortgages. >>890847 fair. Lmao imagine a mass boomer selloff of housing. Just a massive destruction of wealth for the boomers but ironically it might turn millenials more reactionary because more of them would be able to afford a home.
>>890850 he ALWAYS completely underdelivers yet robinhood investors keep poomping.
>>890851 there have been serious speculations that the housing market may crash due to covid evictions, that would wipe them out
>>890853 were gonna need a bigger printing press
>>890851 Unless you're $120k houses in good shape go for "$6000 Rape Shack by the B52s" prices, probably not. I have the most savings out of anyone I know, and that's because I was one of the lucky ten people who got the unemployment funbucks and live in the middle of nowhere, and I sure as fuck couldn't afford a down payment on any house nearby. Banks might start picking up more real estate to offer as tax havens, but I don't know enough to really say if you'd see overseas oligarchs buy up property in Fon Du Lac, WI.
>>890863 your*
>>890863 Imagine literally all real estate being funneled into fucking tax havens and financial fuckery, every prole out on the street while every home is intentionally empty.
>>890878 if that happened i think demand would simply cease to be a concept and the "economy" would just be computers changing numbers and funny line goes up shit its already here
>>890878 Like I said, I don't know enough to say if this would happen on the scale that would be required to still have the housing market we do currently, so I would actually err on the side of "this sounds like bullshit", but entire neighborhoods in the middle of nowhere being emptied out to be glorified paperweights would be something. >>890882 Ok but did you see that line though? God, that shit's so wacky. I like to watch it myself. :)
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>>890891 hey hey porky hear that sound? it's the sound of bonds turning negative, the sound of stonks never going up again, the sounds of you ""investments"" becoming dead paper, good luck
>>890902 I love that this poster plays a wrestling heel in this thread. I appreciate you, porky poster.
Good morning are we gonna see a Black Tuesday? We've had Black monday, thursday, and Friday. If we get two major crashes in a row we will have all the days of the week.
>>890907 I didn't think it would crash that bad?
>>890891 Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like?
>>890907 not yet tbh
>>890863 I'd day Upper Midwest/Greats Lakes prob one of the best places in the world, if not the best, to ride out Climate change
>>890969 shame it's in Burgerland's asscrack.
>>890969 rather die in a fire in cali than live in the midwest
>>890969 Don't mind the tornados.
>>890149 It's hard to tell, this is uncharted territory. Besides the economic factors, I'd argue that psychological factors, already severely downplayed by apologists of the system, are now more important than ever. After all, the entire damn country is operating under a bizarre state of half-awareness of the mess in which tell they, it's hard to tell how much of it is ignorance due to media manipulation and how much is denial as defense mechanism, and possibly there's another factor here which allows for omninormalization to happen in the first place. I mean, consider, what would happen if every single American were informed about the stock market LARP? Would it immediately crash, would it go hayware and be closed down, or what? More than ever, information, an obviously immaterial factor, is important. I'm convinced that this crisis is differentiated from previous ones for, among other things, the informational aspect. Events and facts are no longer immediately obvious, it's impossible to tell which things completely slip by the public, which ones become omninormalized and which ones cause a reality shock, so to speak, when sanity reasserts itself. That was the case with the Floyd riots. Tho they were disproportional to the murder itself, it triggered a brief return to reality, in the sense that people finally start fucking shit up despite it being a time for fucking shit up for at least 3 months previous. Not to mention all the insanity which has been accumulating these past few years. The American left has to work at this moment to drag as many people as possible back to reality by judicious education, because information itself, right now, is as abundant as to be worthless, especially since most of it indeed is worthless, doing nothing but disinform. Correct and useful information is at a premium, and it's the chief resource at this moment.
>>890969 Imagine thinking you will survive the imperialist wars for resources (a situation where a nuclear escalation would not be just a possibility, but reality) in a NATO country let alone the US. The US army's policy towards the usage of battlefield nuclear weapons has been eased a lot in recent years. Global warming results partially in making extraction of resource much easier in Russia due to, for example thawed permafrost. The West might get in a situation where they need these resources. I bet you that if such a war happens Russia's tank columns will be hit with a tactical nuclear weapon which results in the (potential) escalation of the conflict. You might not live in a city above 25.000 inhabitants, but the total collapse of production lines and even more dire the annihilation of industrial agricultural practices overnight. The subsequent harvests after a theatre wide nuclear war will not only be affected by radiation, dust and lower temperatures. The crop will suffer from difficulties which industrial agriculture largely eliminated. Examples include blights or pests. The likelihood that you will survive climate change and especially the armed conflicts which go with it in the US is quite small. Sincerely, SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE GANG
>>890276 >Where are you getting the Euler thing? Roberts' blog doesn't mention it at all. It's just the natural logarithm derived from the mathematical constant e: >The number e, known as Euler's number, is a mathematical constant approximately equal to 2.71828, and can be characterized in many ways. It is the base of the natural logarithm.[1][2][3] It is the limit of (1 + 1/n)n as n approaches infinity, an expression that arises in the study of compound interest. >Bernoulli noticed that this sequence approaches a limit (the force of interest) with larger n and, thus, smaller compounding intervals. Compounding weekly (n = 52) yields $2.692597..., while compounding daily (n = 365) yields $2.714567... (approximately two cents more). The limit as n grows large is the number that came to be known as e. That is, with continuous compounding, the account value will reach $2.7182818... >More generally, an account that starts at $1 and offers an annual interest rate of R will, after t years, yield eRt dollars with continuous compounding. >(Note here that R is the decimal equivalent of the rate of interest expressed as a percentage, so for 5% interest, R = 5/100 = 0.05.) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E_(mathematical_constant) The market is based on constant compound lending on top of compound lending originating from the central bank. The interest rate is now zero. e^(0)t is a constant of 1. The financial economy cannot grow, mirroring the fact that the real profit based economy has halted expansion.
>>890852 Musk is a smart cookie, he realized relatively early the importance of appearances in a society deep into post-modernity. Fame becomes a mark of power. Behave like you are something and people will treat you like something, and the result is undistinguishable from actually being something, for as long as you can maintain the illusion.
>>891011 >Southern Hemisphere Gang! <Hemispheric Desert Gang!
>>891032 >ignores the point entirely What were you saying again, northern scum?
>>891013 Note that this was previously circunvented by the government issuing long dated debt, so the yield was still something like e^(0.01)*(365 days*30 years). That has been exhausted due to its overapplication since 2007.
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>>891013 I know about Euler's number, but I never saw it being associated with economics. I never stopped to think the formula of compound interest has a limit. But quite how does it matter here? Has the poomp money been essentially borrowed around over and over between n parties to keep the inflated prices crawling upwards? If I'm understanding this right, since the economy went belly-up, the speculation simply has no end because there's nothing to absorb that money as investment, so to keep the apperance of a healthy market going, the money just circulates endlessly as loans from one party to another, until it reaches a point when the interest, which is the arbitrary "barrier" which separates one phony loan from the next one in the chain, reaches zero, so it actually does become just people passing money around, and consequently, it can't inflate the phony prices anymore. At least not with this particular scheme anyway, but I'm sure Porky can figure another one. Have I got this right?
>>891087 You know asymptotes? We’re at the part where the line looks flat
>>891062 Presumably, if we charted the duration of the loans avalaible since then, would it be steadily decreasing until reaching the crazy one-day repos which became fairly common last year?
>>891087 >>891100 And now the Federal Reserve isn't giving out loans anymore. They are actively buying assets. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has a massive stock portfolio. He has a personal interest in keeping asset prices high. Except nothing in the market can hold real value this point. They are buying the bonds of bankrupt companies like Hertz. It's trying to keep a meaningless number elevated to avoid admitting defeat. This comes at the cost of the real economy which needs prices to crash to function. At some point the government or the people will have to weigh if these policies actually do anything for the majority of Americans and the world at large, because if they do not, the entire system is figuratively and literally bankrupt. Then the fun begins when the smarter money tries to get out into hard assets (which they are already doing) while the poor create mass civil unrest if the government defends the interests of the wealthy at their expense. Once the end of economics is reached, the only path to transformation is political.
>>891098 But quite what does that line model?
>>891173 Max market value of debt based financial assets. Since it's hilariously convenient that the Dow was 10K at the last profitability crisis in 2007 we might as well just take 10k*e and get 27,182.81 as the top of the Dow for this cycle, which is coincidentally where it got in late 2019 before the Fed started freaking out and doing the repo purchases. The bank algorithmic lending models probably realized the returns have been exhausted and stopped buying, but Man in his hubris defied the machine and cast himself into hell.
Yeah I'm a Dengist now
>>891203 will it close under 26? god i hope so
>>890426 Well, it's same old new news. A group of speculators destroying the economy, like everything else. Thanks to Clinton for repealing Glass-Steagall Act.
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>>891018 >Musk is a smart cookie, he realized relatively early the importance of appearances in a society deep into post-modernity Yeah, that's why he lied about being 100% green in California factory.
>>891157 Underrated post.
>>891211 Wait, you're implying that everything from 2007 to 2019 was this endless circleborrowing. As I understood it, this endless circleborrowing has started this year after the crash as the fed started providing the infinite poomp.
>>891157 >>891379 Note the US government could delay this with the following programs: infrastructure spending, social democratic taxation and expansion of welfare (UBI), and devaluation of the dollar. All this does though is delay the problem and allow activity to pick up for a few decades before a new technological shock brings about new oligarchs and we start all over again.
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>>891390 It started with QE and the Federal Reserve has never sold off the assets it purchased to support the banks at that time. >Fed buys mortgage loan from bank >banks uses the money from the sale to issue a new mortgage loan >Fed buys new mortgage loan from bank The banks were "regulated" after the 2007 so this was "fine", except the money just moved to hedge funds and corporate finance.
>>891390 >that'swhereyouarewrongkiddo.jpg.usa.govt Quantitative Easing never stopped, they just rebranded-it.
>>891397 >and devaluation of the dollar Nah, devaluating the dollar won't help.
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>>891412 >>891430 I meant it would imply that everything since then has been this circleborrowing, wouldn't it? Because with real investment and circleborrowing taking place at the same time, it could blow past the Euler limit, and it's preposterous to say there has been no real investment since 2007... isn't it?
>>891447 >Because with real investment and circleborrowing taking place at the same time, it could blow past the Euler limit No? why would that happen?
>>891412 >>891447 The only reason it "worked" at all was because the corporate finance bubble attracted capital away from China and increased employment. The economy reached maximum employment in 2018-19. Employed people can actually take out a loan. For it to grow any further (ie for people to actually be able to pay for the loans they have taken out) requires wage growth, the one thing capitalists hate. If it wasn't for the coronavirus the economy would have stagnated the same except slower, and turned into Japan. Zombie companies worth multi-million dollars on paper but are actually incapable of meeting their obligations without constant government rollover of their debt, a dead or contracting GDP, hidden unemployment (part-time, contract positions without benefits). In the United States' case, unlike Japan it doesn't have an export market, it is reliant on meeting its own workforce's consumption for growth. Sales stagnate, projections turn negative, firms that overinvested at the top start cutting, jobs are lost, incomes are lost, and a deflationary cycle begins. Government intervenes to keep it from falling over at the cost of social spending and we get the same problems as we have now. >>891442 That's what they tried during the Depression. In this case it will cripple the US because of its reliance on imports. The point is to resolve domestic unemployment by destroying the profitability of production abroad.
>>891555 Important to note: even under a zero interest rate policy, regular scheduled payments for the loan are still due. They just don't carry interest. If you have invest the money from the loan into productive capacity that isn't profitable, you are shit out of luck.
>>891555 >The point is to resolve domestic unemployment by destroying the profitability of production abroad. I want to rewrite my idea. Devaluating the Dollar won't help that, because once you do it, everything below the dollar will go down faster. Destroy the dollar as a reserve currency, destroy the dollar as a currency exchange operator, and now you can devaluate to make it competitive to other markets. Tho, Americans will never live again as they do right now if the top 1% pretends to be living like they live today. So, I guess it won't be done by Americans.
>>891585 Also, worth to note that republicans wouldn't like to lose the control the dollar has. >Sanctions are the alternative of wars. Said Mnuchin. and threaten the world with extensive wars if the world decides to overthrow the dollar
>>891585 >>891619 They can do it by taxing overseas purchases of dollar assets originating in the United States. The Congress has already proposed it. Hawley-Baldwin market access charge in 2019. Screw over foreign asset holders, save the States. It is in perfect line with Trumpism. Capital is flooding out of developing markets right now into USD assets because it is the "safe" option, therefore the US will rob them in order to save its own skin. They might try to deposit it in another foreign reserve currency, but that will hurt those economies contra the US (they have the same debt problems) and therefore they will likely adopt such capital controls as well if they don't already have them (eg China). We do back to the 1930s, market access divided along lines of political alignment, and we get the same shit where economics ends with politics.
>>891715 *go back to the 1930s
>>891619 This uneasy global peace does ultimately amount to an indefinite hostage situation. I believe America will lash out at anyone and everyone within reach when it finally collapses.
>>891727 It just has to reimpose the Cold War order. Financial isolation of its geopolitical opponents (USSR / China). Preferential terms for allies of convenience (Yugoslavia, China / Vietnam and SEA, India). Free access for its imperial partners (UK, France). The spanner in the plan is the EU and Russia, who are on a path of convergence independent of the US and China.
>>891157 what are "hard assets" now? legitimate question because gold seems to be a meme and real state is going to crash
>>890577 good post!
>>891715 >can do it by taxing overseas purchases of dollar assets originating in the United States That will only cause a greater plummet in the abroad manufacturing markets, which then again, will devaluate other currencies and repeat the process, and impoverish other countries trying to get inside the U.S. market. Again, abolish dollar as reserve currency and abolish us dollar as currency/commodities exchange operator.
>>891817 They have been buying up large swathes of real estate. Corporations already control large amounts of farmland. Sectors where they maintain exploitation by monopoly.
>>891791 Uhmmmm How is America supposed to do that? The Cold War began in a sociopolitical context that was almost the exact opposite of what exists now America cannot simply remake reality as it sees fit
>>891880 By curbing foreign purchases of assets in the domestic market, prices in the US will crash. This will make domestic development more attractive than overseas development. It starves foreign countries of capital, because foreign devaluation will drive capital flight to the US which will then capture it for domestic spending. The initial effect makes them unlikely to do it, but desperate chauvinists are not known for being logical. They also likely selectively enforce it on geopolitical opponents. If this were a traditional devaluation it would end up balancing out, but the global financial system is skewed in favour of the US as asset guarantor, and it can abuse this power to fund its own ends. A program of Bonapartism. >>891924 The world is reliant on exporting to the US as consumer. Global wages have been suppressed relative to the United States as a result of neoliberal market competition. Without the United States countries suffer from overproduction in excess of domestic needs. Instead of the world absorbing the United States' surplus the United States' is absorbing a global surplus. This is the result of the USD as a reserve currency, and the US could pass legislation manipulating the situation to favour those it is politically aligned with. It already performs such actions on Venezuela and Iran.
So what is the prognosis? My family is insistent in investing everything on index funds. I've been sounding the knell for 3 years that a crisis is nigh, so I'm not sure if I can keep it up. But, to put your money in the stock market when it's basically guaranteed that the economy won't grow, is bonkers. On the other hand, the market has done fantastically since the pandemic started. Thoughts?
>>892022 >By curbing foreign purchases of assets in the domestic market, prices in the US will crash. This will make domestic development more attractive than overseas development. It starves foreign countries of capital, because foreign devaluation will drive capital flight to the US which will then capture it for domestic spending. The initial effect makes them unlikely to do it, but desperate chauvinists are not known for being logical. They also likely selectively enforce it on geopolitical opponents. If this were a traditional devaluation it would end up balancing out, but the global financial system is skewed in favour of the US as asset guarantor, and it can abuse this power to fund its own ends. A program of Bonapartism. Listen, all those reformisms lack understanding of the effects of having the dollars as the reserve currency and a currency/commodity buffer. Let's say that you do the >>891397 >devaluation of the dollar through to achieve a more competitive workforce: >>891585 >destroying the profitability of production abroad. by: >>891715 >taxing overseas purchases of dollar assets originating in the United States Because you think that: >>892022 >It starves foreign countries of capital, because foreign devaluation will drive capital flight to the US which will then capture it for domestic spending. and: >>892022 >By curbing foreign purchases of assets in the domestic market, prices in the US will crash. This will make domestic development more attractive than overseas development. It is absurd because no matter how much dollars 'will drive a capital flight' the fed will print more, therefore it won't stimulate production inside the U.S. And because it is a reserve currency and a key component of interexchange markets, this printing will only devaluate other currencies faster and keep the status quo of U.S. oligarchy. Also, you cannot 'curb' foreign purchases of assets abroad, because fucking everyone uses and wants dollars, therefore, 'taxes' to create a 'restrain' will only cause a higher $ value over other currencies until then again markets are tired of buying dollars.
>>892111 >what is the prognosis? My family is insistent in investing everything on index funds Right now, investment in the U.S. is a gambling casino. The only winner is the house. Invest in hard commodities, gold, physical gold (never purchase a piece of paper that says you have gold. Rmemeber the Uk signed a piece of paper with Venezuela where says Venezuela has like a ton of gold there and look what they did). Or bitcoin, and only bitcoin for now.
>>892119 Jesus, this is terrible advice.
>>892111 >My family is insistent in investing everything on index funds Bad move. Invest in Ethereum
>>892129 >not giving bad advice to your stock market competitors NGMI
>>892111 >So what is the prognosis? My family is insistent in investing everything on index funds. I've been sounding the knell for 3 years that a crisis is nigh, so I'm not sure if I can keep it up. Lol, that's how they always get you. With me it's the opposite. My father does options, but I told him around when Trump was elected, fucking do some buy and holding. I said buy Amazon, and if he did, fuck the return would be huge. But he thinks exactly like you, been saying the "market is overdue for a correction since back then." At this point, with Corona, investing in stocks seems like insanity though. Also told him to buy FB when they IPOed years ago, but he sold after they dipped in the first few months, but if he held. 20 to 250? That's the move. When one of these titans IPOs buy that motherfucker and hold it. I haven't seen anything lately like that.
>>892119 Gold itself is increasingly becoming tied to the fluctuations of the stock market, and has been since the Covid crisis hit, while historically it's been its own thing and regarded as a safe storage of value. Financial fellas on Bloomberg and a few other places the last few nights were talking about this, and its a sign gold is becoming victim to the current speculative hype too. I'd argue that it's still a safe form of value, safer than the rest of the stocks, but yeah.
>>892144 It's been known for years that gold and silver prices were manipulated by big banks like JP Morgan. Another issue for those who think they can use it as an investment rather than a literal doomsday commodity is the fact that lots of big players in the stock market use gold as a hedge. If you look up the price back during the March collapse, the price dropped precipitously because entities were being forced to liquidate their gold holdings to cover margin calls.
>>892139 It's easier to shout out predictions when you don't have your neck on the line. >>892167 This is what I fear. People dumping gold to get liquidity.
>>892167 Gold has never been an investment, no one but libertard goldbugs thinks it qualifies as investment, it's always been speculative. That's how commodities futures work, they're speculations. I mean how would you "invest" in gold? It's never NOT been a hedge against fiat currency and stonks.
>>892129 >>892129 Sorry, I don't believe in keep helping the gambling system in which the U.S. officials are setting the economy.
>>892167 >It's been known for years that gold and silver prices were manipulated by big banks like JP Morgan However, with what China and Russia are stockpiling, U.S. banks can't just manipulate the gold. They control silver, tho. That's why I suggested physical gold, not silver.
>>892174 You realize that my family's money is but a drop in the ocean. This is liberal tier "vote with your wallet" shit.
>>892170 >It's easier to shout out predictions when you don't have your neck on the line. I guess, but then I would like to keep that same mentality with me when I invest my own money, if it makes it easy to get it right.
>>892167 >the price dropped precipitously because entities were being forced to liquidate their gold holdings to cover margin calls. But that's until they ran out of gold because they can't close all of the contracts they have for gold, that's when gold prices started to hike-up.
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Efforts to lift economy out of recession pose risk of sparking a financial crisis, economists worry The economy may be stabilizing faster than expected amid the COVID-19 pandemic, but efforts to preserve it could tip off a financial crisis, economists said in a new report. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/09/21/financial-crisis-stocks-debt-economy-deutsche-bank-report/5851809002/ https://archive.is/85qin shamelessly ripped from newsanon's thread
>>892170 >This is what I fear. People dumping gold to get liquidity. That will save us, by destroying those bankers.
>>892181 >You realize that my family's money is but a drop in the ocean. What are you waiting to tell them to invest in physical gold before shit hits the fan.
So, when are the markets finally crashing and when will this wild ride end with our demise? https://www.strawpoll.me/20985150/
>>892188 >The economy may be stabilizing faster than expected amid the COVID-19 pandemic Yep, they are just looking at the v-shape graph of stocks markets. lel >"Massive fiscal and monetary policy stimulus" that came together to prop up the economy has caused debt to balloon and stocks to become potentially overvalued, posing "the serious risk of a looming global financial crisis as central banks begin to shift away from easy (monetary) policy at some point in the years to come." Now, that's honesty.
>>892119 How are you going to cash out bitcoins when shit hits the fan? No one accepts bitcoin in payments except sex traffickers, and some (not all) drug dealers, and child pornographers. Maybe a couple weed shops. Everyone cares about bitcoin as a speculative "commodity" and cashes it out for more fiat, no one gives a shit about butts. If you really think "shit is going to hit the fan" you get seeds and a garden and guns maybe. Also a way to generate electricity. That's it.
>>892218 >How are you going to cash out bitcoins when shit hits the fan? No one accepts bitcoin in payments except sex traffickers, and some (not all) drug dealers, and child pornographers. Maybe a couple weed shops. Everyone cares about bitcoin as a speculative "commodity" and cashes it out for more fiat, no one gives a shit about butts. That's the thing. If you push to use it, more people will use it. That's why I give the advice. That's literally how any currency started. There're some key differences between tradionatl currencies and bitcoin, tho. Also, there's a shittons of places where you can buy things in Amazon through bitcoin DIRECTLY, so you are not correct in your assumption.
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>>892173 >Gold has never been an investment, no one but libertard goldbugs thinks it qualifies as investment, it's always been speculative. That's how commodities futures work, they're speculations. I mean how would you "invest" in gold? It's never NOT been a hedge against fiat currency and stonks. That would be the truth if all the gold is centralized, like silver is. Again:>>892184
>>892225 >That's literally how any currency started. It's literally not, currencies are imposed from above by states demanding people pay taxes in the form of that currency. Read Debt.
>>892229 These both look like services that convert butts to fiat to send to Amazon. Whatever do what you want man.
>>892225 >That's literally how any currency started. Pretty sure you're wrong, but I don't know enough about anthropology to refute it.
>>892239 How would me buying gold expand the production of gold alone? Buying shares in a gold mining company can be considered investment but buying gold as a hedge against fiat is a speculation, I understand the differences can get fuzzy but investment implies expansion of production / services, buying some gold coinage doesn't expand anything.
>>892267 >Pretty sure you're wrong, but I don't know enough about anthropology to refute it. Currencies all of them started by these steps: >The need for trade. >The trust deposited in the object that represents the trade. I don't need to go further on the first point, but the second is where things got interesting. 'Trust' is a series of things, that summed up, helps the currency to be created and to stay alive. Trust comes from: Irreplicability. No one can replicate the currency, so no one would receive 'free work' which means, it is settled the value of things (later, the price of things, introducing speculation) should be exchanged through the same amount of work, and therefore replicate the currency (counterfeiting the currency) requires more work than working in something else. Usability. If people uses it, means there's a subjective acceptance that whenever you hold this currency, you will find someone else that will also accept it, therefore, you can trade. Capability to store value, to create savings. Because even in the first steps, subjectively people knew they couldn't work forever, and they would have to stop to work, and have something to eat whenever they couldn't work. Therefore, you needed something to store value. That's the three principles that reign the trust, we, human beings deposit on currencies. Anthropology will not answer you that, but economy.
>>892271 >How would me buying gold expand the production of gold alone? Gold is used as resource for producing certain electronics and medical equipment. These companies probably have special fixed price supply contracts, buffering against speculation. Production of gold might be directed by these contracts and not market prices.
>>892225 >>892377 Currencies we use today started with taxation, and did not emerge as commodity money from exchange. Commodity money did exist in the past. Bitcoin cannot handle enough transactions and lacks price stability for commerce.
>>892271 >Buying shares in a gold mining company can be considered investment but buying gold as a hedge against fiat is a speculation If the mining company is saved constantly by the federal reserve, then it is speculation, too. That's the point of me telling you guys to stop participating in the U.S. share markets where the FED is literally creating a huge casino. >>892271 >gold as a hedge against fiat is a speculation The reasoning behind this is: We have found people especulating with gold, therefore, gold is especulation. Which is an absurd hyperbole: You can't print gold out of nowhere. (Except if you buy 'contracts' - that's why I also commented above to buy physical gold).
>>892430 >Currencies we use today started with taxation Wrong. That's a liberal standpoint about Rome, and it creates a false narrative about currencies. In which case I would have to ask you, what would it be first in human history: The need to trade or The need to create a government. Which one of those options above is more important to humans beings.
>>892431 So buying shares is speculation because the fed intervenes in the market through repossession, but this somehow doesn't magically apply to gold price determination, which is still an investment because you can't make gold or something. So the fed inflates the stonk market thereby making stonks speculative but somehow doesn't by the same logic inflate the gold market thereby making the gold bullion sitting there in the corner (any sane person would think I was hedging against currency risk) an investment. Got it, you are a deluded gold bug. Many such cases!
>>892448 >>892431 >You can't print gold out of nowhere. >you can't make gold or something >Conveniently ignores the point. >>892448 >but somehow doesn't by the same logic inflate >Conveniently ignores the point, again. Keynessians capitalists are happy to see you, comrade.
>>892435 Earliest Governments, if you go by States are Mesopotamian, Egyptian, Greek. Tribal chiefs predate those. Trade comes after.
>>892435 >That's a liberal standpoint about Rome, and it creates a false narrative about currencies. In which case I would have to ask you, what would it be first in human history: The need to trade or The need to create a government. Don't know how money started, I claimed that currencies we currently use were created for taxation, those do not go back to the beginning of money.
>>892462 Do I really have to bring google links where they say the first tax registered existed in Egypt around 2500BC, while the first international trade (note that is international) existed even before those dates? The need for trades always comes before the need for a government, therefore, any sort of currency is created always first. Of course, coins were later introduced after governments started to exist, but in terms of trade, barter used resemblances of what was later defined as a coin, but they used piece of metals to trade.
>>892456 If you can't make gold you can't invest in the expansion of the production of gold. What do you think investment is???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
>>892493 >>892493 Because the companies that mine gold would be profitable, therefore they wouldn't speculative. I have already explained that above.
>>892545 Do you think investment has to succeed in order to be considered investment? You know what, nevermind, enjoy watching Peter Schiff, he's predicted all 234 of the last 4 financial crashes. Buy gold bullion and let it sit there in the closet while you wait for the end.
>>892570 >Do you think investment has to succeed in order to be considered investment? There's good and bad investments. >Peter who?
>>892600 Gold is a speculative hedge against inflation. That's it, you aren't investing. This is definitional. I'm done with this debate, you don't know what terms mean.
>>892602 >Gold is a speculative hedge against inflation Again, that's a whole new hyperbole: You can't print gold, therefore you can't speculate with gold.>>892602 >That's it, you aren't investing. t. currencyfag. >>892602 >I'm done with this debate, you don't know what terms mean. Sure, whatever, keep devouring Keynesianism. Let me know how do you work out savings, meanwhile
>>892620 It's not even keynesianism, it's common financial parlance to consider commodity futures speculative. Again buying gold and letting it sit there isn't investment in future production. You aren't even using Marxist terminology either, so I assumed you were libertarian and knew who Peter Schiff was (he's popular in the gold bug sphere) but you don't know that either.
Just because something is finite like gold is, doesn't mean it can't become a bubble as people extrapolate rises in its price and keep on pumping the price up by hording it. When you have people options trading like fuck on it, it becomes another commodity on the market that gets played around with. If you want a finite storage of value, why gold exactly? Why not silver, or platinum, or any other rare earth metal? At this point gold isn't a special or unique commodity.
>>892631 >doesn't mean it can't become a bubble as people extrapolate rises in its price and keep on pumping the price up by hording it >>892184 and >>892179 >>892261 Here:>>892377 and >>892435 and >>892491 Props to 5000 years of debt, but the writer advocates for capitalism
>>892215 >posing "the serious risk of a looming global financial crisis as central banks begin to shift away from easy (monetary) policy at some point in the years to come. But what if they just... don't? t. MMT-gang
>>891515 Because there are actual endpoints for the circulating capital in the form of productive investment opportunities, and value is created by them. >>892188 >risk of sparking a financial crisis Kinda late for that. >The economy may be stabilizing faster than expected lolling >>892570 >he's predicted all 234 of the last 4 financial crashes "WOAH" -- Crash Bandicoot
>>892184 True, there was indeed a price hike right after, but that was because the daily flights that move bullion from country to country were halted from COVID, causing a physical shortage. The gold price spike that we're seeing in more recent days is because of central banks playing around with asset purchase programs and inflation targets.
>>892117 You have to consider the chain of events. Foreign central banks cannot acquire US dollar assets if doing so will incur a net loss. They will have to buy other reserve assets or sell the dollars accumulated from a trade surplus on the open market. The dollar glut will cause its value to drop in forex markets - this will cause outgoing US investment and outgoing US spending to drop in tandem. US banks cannot buy as much in external assets for their dollars and US consumers cannot buy as much product for theirs. As the dollars are not recycled for lending into the US financial system due to demand for reserve assets, US asset prices will drop as they are fundamentally overvalued. The combination will mean that A) it is more expensive to invest abroad, B) US consumers cannot buy as much of goods produced overseas anyway, and C) US prices have dropped therefore US investors would rather invest domestically. This will cause the loss of a positive trade position in overseas economies, and a corresponding recession will require them not to hold devalued US liabilities but sell them off to buy domestic liabilities to drive internal demand. The devalued US assets will have a higher yield (as they are fixed yield and now underpriced), leading to their acquisition by US banks (who are not subject to the tax) who sell off risky debt for safer debt (deflating any remaining bubbles) and stabilizing the financial system. The US offloads the crisis abroad on a world that longs USD assets by underpaying. The printing is already done, it just needs a push to trigger foreigners to sell. The Dollar Index is weak, US bonds are overpriced, the US stock exchange is overpriced, this would be the controlled burn to keep the system from crashing and the type of thing a spent central bank with an interventionist administration would do.
all my bets are on a 2nd march like or worse crash between November to February. if its Trump November/December if Biden January/February maybe later shrug
>>892830 My bets are on the US election becoming a highly contested one due to mail order ballots and that in itself will sink the markets. I speculate that another wave of rioting, possibly larger than the BLM wave, will take place as people are amped into believing their side had the election stolen from them. The worst possibility is a repeat of 2000, a contested election with Trump coming out on top. Throw that in with democrats having a huge margin with the popular vote and there will be drama and riots that will last well beyond the end of January. It'll be the second time in twenty years that the democrats had had an election "stolen" from them, they'll want constitutional change and blood.
Will funny line go down any further this week or will volatility be contained for now?
>>892845 i think biden being the eventual winner would be the worst possibility in terms of chaos. then we get to see reactionaries attempt their retarded fantasies and the absurdity of trump maybe being forcibily removed from the white house by helicopter while packs of rightoids try to jump the fence.
>>893657 *in terms of near term domestic chaos that is, trump staying in and fucking with the levers of imperialism would probably be the best for a long term case
>>893863 I fully expect the announcement of another 100 gorillion dollars on Tesla tomorrow which will make it more valuable than the Dutch East India Company
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will today be a happening day?
>>893883 elon is a snake oil salesman who just showed on stage he can't deliver. Also the entire Tesla company network went down. twitter.com/FredericLambert/status/1308785777292316672
>>893914 That has been the case for ages and it hasn't stopped this clown show.
>>893914 Yeah whats this thing about Tesla being a ponzy scheme? Does that theory have legs?
>>893927 Tesla is a ponzi scheme in the sense that any business based on stock market speculation is. And loads of "tech industry" companies are like that today. Uber is another big one. The (unspoken) promise is that if you invest into this industry leader they can become the monopoly and shareholders will benefit from monopolistic practices.
>>893863 >>893914 What happened with the battery?
>>893863 r/teslainvestorsclub in full cope mode. >What's going on here is that Elon is a bad salesman <implying that Tesla's valuation is based on anything other than retail investors part of the musk cult >Obviously Wall Street is only thinking about short term gains and is missing the big picture >People don't realize that the car company part of the business is only a fraction of Tesla's real potential
>>893927 I don't think that's the appropriate term. Musk is just a showman who figured out that appearing to be successful is much easier than being successful while bringing in the same results in this clown world. >>893934 >any business based on stock market speculation is. It has been bullshit since before the stonks became dettached from reality, he always relied on appearances to make the world believe Tesla is the bee's knees. Even tho his own stage stuns often disappointed even back then, he persisted in keeping up the act that he knew what he was doing and that Tesla was a futuristic Gattaca-like megacorp which operated flawlessly regardless of what anyone thought, and that was enough to get the illusion going.
Is it bad that i want mr. Musk to fail just so private space travel never "takes off"?
>>893957 If that's bad, I don't want to be good. I sincerely hope that all attempts at space colonization under capitalism end up as spectacular and explosive failures.
>>893863 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/23/tesla-sues-to-overturn-trump-administration-tariffs-on-china-.html Tesla is suing the government over tariff in some specific components tariffs added to the Chinese.
>>893980 Porky will be its own undoing.
>>893979 Yeah, that's a total cope. Like we don't have enough problems here, to even think colonizing another planet. In retrospective, when Spaniards colonized South America, they had a lot of problems, but it wasn't for the purpose of 'colonizing' but to find a new route. If you tell me another thing, another type of debate, like we want to mine mars for our own resources, well, that's another topic - but I don't think we can manage profitability in such case.
>>893936 >everyone thinks he is going to show off revolutionary long life battery >nah man we are just making batteries in house >also we aren't doing it until 2022
>>893948 >only a fraction of Tesla's real potential Can’t wait till one of their commercial spaceflights fails and thirty porkies burn up in the atmosphere
>>894046 god that would be so good, together with some musk idiots dying from getting the pigchip in their brains >>893927 Pretty much all silicon valley companies, but Tesla first and foremost, subsist not on profits but on the acquisition of debt and financing of said debt with revenue from stock value going up. Tesla only started to kinda maybe sorta profit recently and even then the endgoal is always to raise stock valuation above anything else. The moment Tesla stock reaches its apex (maybe right now) and confidence crumbles it would just instantly go bankrupt.
>>893914 like holy shit car keys worked just fine, but nooo, gotta have cellphone and internet integration, so smart, so high tech; I am convinced that with every technological development capitalism becomes more fragile given bullshit amount of redundant parts in "smart" integration
Dow -362 1.33%
>>894080 >gotta have cellphone and internet integration Wait, so what the fuck happens to your Tesla when you are driving through a forest or some shit where there is no internet? Does it just die? Keeps running but locks you out if you decided to hop out and take a piss?
What effects do you think we'll see if the market gets back down to where it was in March? Or lower. The Fed has already busted their load like 4 times in a row, so what else can they do?
>>894070 >>893953 >>893934 Cheers anons. Further reminded that we live in the most efficient economic system
>>894238 They need to take financial viagra, whatever that is.
>>894206 >>894080 This is my biggest bugaboo, all this "smart" shit they are pushing on people is just an excuse to shove more microphones and cameras into your house. It also means that your car keys and fridge now need software updates making you reliant on the company.
>>894080 Can you imagine what a new car would be like with absolutely no electronics in it except for a heater, an air conditioner, and a radio? One with a tool kit, a jack, and a real spare tire in the trunk? One made entirely of replacable parts with an engine that you could access and work on yourself? One that could be modified with aftermarket parts by someone who is neither an engineer nor a mechanic who works at a certified dealership? It is going to take communism to create such a thing, isn't it?
>>894272 All of this is one of the reasons I'm hanging on to my 2000 Toyota.
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>>893948 >>Obviously Wall Street is only thinking about short term gains and is missing the big picture >People don't realize that the car company part of the business is only a fraction of Tesla's real potential This is literally how all my friends who are Elon cult members talk lol
>>894206 not gonna bother looking it up but I would imagine that Tesla's also have those keyless fobs and that using your phone is an option. Also bluetooth or wifi can be used without external data. The fuss over the Tesla network being down today was that the website couldn't accept new orders and owners couldn't remotely start their vehicles.
>>894282 Thirty years from now those of us who are still driving will all be driving fifty-year old cars.
>>894292 Because it's a cult, all of the dopes who buy into it are hopeless tech addicts who spend all of their online time in circlejerk echo chambers like reddit or very specific parts of twitter. My muskman friend is very much into that nonsense simultaneously supports both Ron Paul and Bernie Sanders despite the obvious contradictions because the hive has poisoned his brain. Last time I saw him TSLA was at like $600 and he was smugly bragging about how he bought into it at like $120 (for reference I was talking about how my portfolio is all index funds and my 401k is all in target date mutual funds). Ironically, the ETF SPY was also at $120 when he bought his shares and today both TSLA and SPY are hanging out around $350. He's up on me a little for now but like >>893934 said eventually the music stops and better be in front of a chair.
>>894272 >Can you imagine what a new car would be like with absolutely no electronics in it except for a heater, an air conditioner, and a radio? One with a tool kit, a jack, and a real spare tire in the trunk? One made entirely of replacable parts with an engine that you could access and work on yourself? One that could be modified with aftermarket parts by someone who is neither an engineer nor a mechanic who works at a certified dealership? It is going to take communism to create such a thing, isn't it? Yes, but diy serviceable cars do not have to be all mechanical tho.
>>894206 If you care, a bunch of nerds are discussing it here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24568802 I think Teslas are pieces of shit personally. They'll "autopilot" you into a wall and then the company will slander you for being irresponsible.
Missouri governor and his wife test positive for Covid-19 Missouri Gov. Mike Parson (R) and first lady Teresa Parson both tested positive for the coronavirus, Parson’s office said Wednesday. The office said Teresa Parson was tested Wednesday morning after showing minor symptoms. Gov. Parson was tested too, and both tests came back positive. Staffers who came into contact with the governor are being tested and awaiting results. Parson has canceled official and campaign events. His office said he is not experiencing any symptoms, and that he continues to work from the Governor’s Mansion in Jefferson City. Parson is the second governor to test positive for the SARS-CoV-2 virus since the beginning of the outbreak, after Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt (R). Stitt recovered, and shared a photo of himself on social media donating plasma to help other patients. Parson ascended to the governorship in 2018, after his predecessor Eric Greitens (R) resigned in the midst of a sex abuse scandal. He faces Auditor Nicole Galloway (D) in November’s election for a full term, one of the marquee gubernatorial contests on the ballot this year. Parson and Galloway had been scheduled to participate in a debate hosted by the Missouri Press Association on Friday. That debate is likely to be canceled as Parson isolates himself while he recovers. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/517880-missouri-governor-tests-positive-for-covid-19
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>>894859 I'm sure he'll just get over it!
So comrades, if mathematically the markets cannot grow in price any further, without purchasing input data from the US Federal Reserve or other financial support inflows from the US government, the algorithms have no reason to pick up prices in a concerted sell-off wave.
>>893996 >Yeah, that's a total cope. It's not just a cope. Let's be honest here, porkies are hoping for a lifeboat out of the wasteland planet they're creating. Capital would rather raze this planet down and move on to another one rather than stop razing it, the same way it destroys everything in its path to grow then recreates it as pastiche in order to grow more. >>894320 Cubans really were living in the future all along.
>>895490 did [cultural industry trash] do [anything]? no
>>894272 Idk, there are enough environmentally conscious and (ostensibly) surveillance-nervous libs who might be interested in having a FairPhone that’s a car.
>>894272 capitalism once made a phenomenal car and not surprisingly it flopped, so yeah, gonna take communism to have actual decent products https://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2008/06/citroen-2cv.html >french(!!!) car from the 40s entirely eletric >same fucking mileage as a current tesla >tiny fucking battery not even made from lithium because people hadn't figured it out >if a tesla had a lightweight chassis and no eletronic crap it would run pretty much forever on a single charge >muskfags still gobble the muskcock
>>894323 >simultaneously supports both Ron Paul and Bernie Sanders wouldn't he have an aneurysm trying to believe in both "big guberment evil" and "lets have the government make ford factories again"? musk is a hell of a drug
>>897404 Maybe their big concern is to stop USA murdering overseas people
>>897405 >bernie >stop murdering people overseas yeah no, better to have muh jobs in shipyards and raytheon factories
>>897564 has the market even started yet or just futures? plz POST SCREENCAP
>>897577 >under 27k yep the ships gonna sink soon boys get ready for collapse
>>897581 If that's true, then why is it going up? rekt
https://youtu.be/Ib84FGsBM0s Petty Booj getting crushed confirmed?
>>897581 So here's the rundown >fed is no longer buying assets because the money is going into fake conpanies >US government cancelled stimulus because it's covering up the CVIS numbers >fed is not cutting interest rates below negative because rising prices has not corresponded with rising employment - it needs stronger demand therefore a stronger dollar for consumers to buy more >a stronger dollar means demand to hold dollars will exceed demand for lending >a repeat of the repo market crisis of 2019 will occur - investors will want to withdraw cash from lending markets aggressively >this causes real market interest rates on variable rate loans to spike and overleveraged asset market prices to crash Imagine HBO Chernobyl except the incompetence is the reality of capitalist dysfunction and instead of a nuclear power plant they are running a global economy. They might try but the conventional interventions won't save you now.
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>>897811 To elaborate the US Federal Reserve has two options: >support falling asset prices by purchasing them off the market with new money during a selloff, devaluing the dollar, weakening consumption, hurting the recovery and resulting in negative long term growth and unemployment (households are already bankrupt, corporations don't spend against the business cycle, nobody that can will borrow if they don't see any entities to sell to for returns in excess of investment cost) >don't support asset prices when dollars are withdrawn from the credit markets and cause a great depression style crash and immediate massive unemployment Option 3 the US starts a war to get out of the funk.
>>898274 Given the current state of bonds, how would the US even finance such a war? And how would a weak president such as Trump or Biden even rally the people into the frenzy necessary for war give that people are still protesting the police?
>>898342 Dollar is still the global reserve and commodity trading currency, so they can spend whatever they want on a war. They could also theoretically do debt jubilee and helicopter money to purge the entire system and reset demand, but that is less politically feasible than a war. re: frenzy, people have been fed a steady drip of propaganda about all the various enemies. Reading the anti-"dengism" & Xinjiang hysterics on here should give you a hint as to how far the demonisation on China for example has filtered down.
Give us the scoop, /crisis/ I haven't been here in a while.
>>898472 Underrated post.
>>898591 It was made less than an hour ago!
>>898472 China would just dump the dollar if burgerstahn attacked pro'ly
>>898472 >Xinjiang hysterics on here lol what a cope
>>898472 Judging by history I think a cataclysmic war could be a real possibility, but it is still hard to imagine in the near future. Maybe in the next 10-20 years or so. I guess that is the near future, but I don't think people are fired up enough about an enemy like China yet to go die for it just yet. The establishment needs to keep churning out propaganda about death camps or whatever. And in order to really get out of the funk the war has to be significant. Like, I don't think just annihilating North Korea would do it. It needs to be something that liquidates a lot of productive capital so that American and other western business interests can swoop in and both build up as well as sell to a new market. China was that market in a peaceful cooperation, but it is too independent and is starting to compete with western business interests, as well as long-term dominance of those interests in other developing markets. So China looks like it would be the one, but direct war with them would obviously be catastrophic in the scale of its devastation so it needs a huge propaganda push to make it thinkable. Personally I think it will be a very difficult sell to the Iraq War generation, even if they're falling for the Xinjiang propaganda, but we will see.
>>897408 Since when is Bernie advocating for war with Iran or China? He's easily the least imperialist US politician there is.
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>>894272 Reject cars. Return to trolleys. THEY TOOK THIS FROM YOU
Brainlet econ question: We know from empirical evidente that profit rates are falling in the long run,and that's ok. We also know though that one of capital's favourite moves to keep profitability high is concentration. Now my question is: What would happen if all the system's production was to be concentrated in one monopoly? Couldn't it be used to keep profit stable forever or even to boost them a little?
>>898677 that's a low bar to clear, but sure, you have a point. Still, he voted for f35s and largely abstained from most important war stuff
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>>897399 That car doesn't run on electricity. In fact it hardly used electric parts at all.
>>898741 TRAM GANG
>>898274 >Option 3 the US starts a war to get out of the funk. It can't afford this now. >and cause a great depression style crash and immediate massive unemployment That already happened breh
>>898986 Theoryanons please feel free to correct me, I'm no expert but I'll try to answer your questions. Concentration doesn't raise profits, it produces rent. The profit margin that Roberts and Marx talk about, as far as I gather, is more of a relation of value rather than specifically how much price a particular commodity costs. To be somewhat brief, value is created through labour; the only way to effectively create profit is through the extraction of surplus value from workers. Given that technology and economical trends raise productivity and reduces the need for labour, profit gets extracted from fewer and fewer workers, which means that the profit actually being introduced into the system gets lower and lower as labour gets reduced to a minimum. Monopolies on the other hand, as is commonly known, can dictate prices regardless of value; the thing is, by raising something's price (raising balance sheet profits) the actual value being created stays the same, and if said commodity is a need (say food or water) all this does is take enact a tax (also known as rent) on all consumers that reduces their capacity to acquire stuff that isn't this need. So, to try and be clear and perhaps less abstract: by using less and less labour and paying less and less workers fewer people have money to buy stuff; under somewhat fair competition prices tend to lower and the system stabilizes for a while; monopoly, on the other hand, can raise the price of a good but the amount of money people have to buy stuff stays the same, so it only diverts money that, say, would go towards a luxury good into a basic need or just cuts people out from certain markets. It can't solve the fundamental contradiction within the system, which is - as fewer and fewer people have wages and production stays the same or raises, fewer and fewer products get sold which then makes it impossible the transformation of a good into actual profit (that is, realization of profit).
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>>898475 The poomp might be reaching its limit for reasons stated by other anons and which my smooth brain can't understand.
>>898741 I will never not be mad at this. I will never not be mad at a lot of things. Capitalism made this planet a third world version of what it could have been.
>>899077 Poomp stops being useful because all it does is maintain asset prices at the cost of not giving money to anyone else which keeps demand nuked and the actual economy shit. The only way for this shit to get "better" is to let the stocks correct to something more reasonable (lose maybe some 10k or more?), nuke debts and free consumer spending by killing rent. Shits way too "gommie" for the republicans or democrats to let happen, so they'll just stop doing anything (as they have), not give any money to anyone anymore, and see what happens. Also dollar is getting devalued.
>>899063 WOW nice picture please repost in >>>/hobby/11238
>>899074 Yet it could stall techonology advancement (at least for capital goods) forever thereby forcefully stopping the TRPF from acting, couldn' t it?
>>899105 It produces a rent relation if it stops investment. You end up with a neofeudal economy, not with capitalism, but sure, theoretically say, the state or an immense corporation backed with sufficient military force could simply declare a mostly fixed system of neoserfs and owners, and the rate of profit would more or less be irrelevent, but such a system doesn't have the insane growth potention that capitalism has and would just stagnate until it ends up disintegrating from inertia.
>>899066 >>898274 The US has actually gotten so efficient (may or may not be effective) that wars aren't helping as they used to, having replaced vast numbers of troops with just drones. They already have overproduced everything they possibly could have, and the real value of war is that you can sell shit in a post-war demand, which is why eventually imperialist war stops being as effective for a consumption-oriented empire. There's people here that want to keep doomposting about how the US empire will last for a thousand years but it doesn't work out.
>>899120 the us wars don't really destroy capital though (except in contained places such as iraq and syria which are more or less irrelevant from a world perspective); what they do is drive demand for military goods. A major land war agains china could potentially restart profit accumulation, but frankly the world is so fucked up that the easy resources that drive up reconstruction are mostly gone and investment is really expensive relative to say the 50s
>>899087 >at the cost of not giving money to anyone else y tho, isn't credit almost free anyway?
>>899135 sure is, but even with negative interest you still got to make payments on the principal, and without profitable investments that have decent yields to cover the debt it just becomes a drag in the economy
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>a fucking gaming channel is more in touch with reality than the entire capitalist elite
>>899297 >ross being on point And playing Deus Ex is just frosting on the cake
>>899319 ross who?
>>899297 how old is this video?
>>899297 Gordon Freeman's the only stemfag that doesn't get the wall
>>899297 He showed a screenshot from counterpunch. /ourguy/?
>>899508 >people don't walk without horses and carriages Guess how i know you're a highway lobbyist/cager/rubber industry fanatic/oil salesman
>>899543 What about his brother John?
>>899565 What happened to John?
>>899297 Accursed farms is great. His whole games as a service is a master piece
>>898600 The US would just raise interest rates or sell off assets. The problem with the dollar isn't that it's too weak and at risk of depreciation, it's actually too strong. The US has policies to manage currency weakness but not the opposite. >>899066 >it can't afford this now It doesn't give a shit what it can afford. >banks love it for the government debt >corporations love it because it gives them demand in a depressed market >people unemployed are forced into "jobs" by the draft It's pure Keynes. >that already happened breh They used the last of their policy room to save the market. They can't continue doing it because everyone is expecting a recession and nobody believes the policies will be productive. People buy into Ponzi schemes because always expecting to be the first to get out.
>>899568 He saved the humens.
>>899837 Then John is the big cool I guess.
>>899826 I don't mean just afford in resources. With the situation at home politically volatile and just getting started on a long period of material misery, a war of aggression would be a terrible idea, and the lack of anything close to a bogeyman right now would upgrade that to nearly suicidal.
>>899297 Well fuck me, I shall invest or in bitcoin or in ethereum. Kek
>>899297 Who's this BASED lad
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How's tomato anon doing?
>>900000 cheka'd
>>900000 ✅ more like STINKS hahahaha
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>>900000 Dump it.
>>900000 hell yeah
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>>900000 Mother of god
>>900000 Someone check the stocks, SOMEBODY CHECK THE STOCKS NOW!
>>900000 sgutget
>>899826 Would you mind explaining how a currency gets to be either too strong or too weak?
>>900118 Strong demand for a currency (deriving either from high interest rates or from widespread international use or from a strong export sector) reinforces taht currency excahmge rate against all other.
>>900000 OH GOD OH FUCK
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>>900000 Dubcek'd
>>899053 f35s are a meme and basically just a money pit job program at this point.
>>899297 I love Ross hope hes doing aight
>>900135 In international trade this is especially bad because many major exporters like China, Germany, Japan, Southeast Asia, etc. prefer to hold export surplus value in dollar and dollar assets rather than domestic currencies and assets, as allowing domestic assets to appreciates risks a repeat of the Asian and Latin American financial crises and keeping their currency devalued boosts competitiveness (lower real wages, increases the cost of external vs internal products, lower imports driving their international competitors out of business).
>>900000 Oh dear...
>>900364 Wonder what cult he joined to escape the collapse
>>899973 >>899503 It's from August 7 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5n90WohCSIg >>899570 Yeah, he lays a huge stinking shit on the capitalist model of gaming.
>>899865 It will end up like World War I where each nation has its own propagandized version of events to justify the war. The only way any of it is sustainable is if each nation can "prove" its market is valuable by destroying those if other nations, to end up with a situation like the concentration of world capital in the United States post World War II because global production and global consumption had been decimated elsewhere. The war has to be so bad and so total that it doesn't end up with a victor that rides it out by not getting involved again.
>>900607 World war 3 is impossible with M.A.D in place. Maybe some super cluster fuck spanning the middle east.
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>>900674 >>900674 >World war 3 is impossible with M.A.D in place lol, you really think porkies (guiding us into climate breakdown and extinction) wont press the magical red button that will ensure investments and the prolonged existence of 'stable' capitalism, because they made a promise to eachother I wish I could be this naïve
>>900674 Nothing is impossible friendo Just because World War III hasn’t occurred yet doesn’t mean it isn’t inevitable Never forget The Soviets were never willing to end the world The Americans are
>>900682 Climate change is different. Porkies know they can escape to the artic circles and resume things there with all new shipping lanes and resources to exploit. There's no guaranteeing they will survive a nuclear war.
>>900708 War isn't logical.
>>900674 A civil war in America kiind of circumvents M.A.D. because control of American nukes then goes to various factions hich might have international alliances and be opposed to other factions with nukes. Besides, the entie world would love the opportunity to pile in on America in case it became a war theater.
>>900837 ICBMs need a lot of state resources to launch and theres multiple layers of chain of command with access codes that would be needed. If a faction can't get all that they might be able to reverse engineer some but once again that would require a lot of resources and specialized labor. Which is going to be needed in a civil war situation. Maybe some state governments that have silos and reverse-engineer them. They still wouldn't launch them they would use them to maintain sovereignty and get political leverage. It would be the North Korean strategy but like California or Texas. If they don't collapse into internal civil wars.
>>900687 believing word war 3 is >inevitable is a terrible take.
>>900882 I not believe anyone with that flag.
THEY'RE UNDER >>900000
>>900000 porkies btfo forever
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>>899998 Good, actually. About half of them ripened after I trimmed the monster plant, the others might still (tho doubtful, as rain and cold have come and the sun is so low it almost doesn't get over my garden wall anymore). They were pretty good, picrel is the only one of the ripe ones left. The one harvest that isn't done yet is my weed, which I had to put inside bc of the weather. Putting it under a cheap growth light in the attic and hope that does it for the flowering...
>>898624 If it happens it won't be ten years. I know a guy who has some dealings with CPC cadres for business reasons (it might surprise naysayers but you cannot in fact freely do business with the infamous Chinese billionaires without the Party having several reps at the table and generally following you around everywhere), and once you get them in their cups the talks is that Taiwan is coming back one way or the other before 2025. It might well be chest pounding of course, but then again... I guess it'll depend on how the Taiwanese play it. They should can it with the independence talk already, the current status quo is working fine for everyone on their side of the Pacific. Of course if we go another ten years without a war the window of opportunity for the US to try something and not get curbstomped globally will have closed for good, so fingers crossed. >>898600 To a large extent they are already dumping now, but people overestimate the size and effect of Chinese holdings. Most dollars are safe with US puppet regimes.
>>901319 Case in point Japan is now the largest holder of US dollars. There will always be some AmeriKKKan colony willing to pick them up.
>>900837 If the Democrats get into power they will probably be able to defuse the radical groups and then co-opt them into supporting a war effort just like what happened during WWI with suffragettes.
>>901248 tomatoposts are the best posts in this imageboard honestly, good job tomatoanon
>>900000 Oh fug
>>901815 Absolutely insane. Young people liked Obama as a person and he had just enough credentials to pacify people into inaction. That's the big worry to me. There's no threat to the US that the empire can use as effectively as 9/11or WW1 that'll somehow get young people to not hate cops and not want a house. The material conditions are what are causing these protests. I don't see how someone as unpopular as Biden or Copmala can diffuse the left.
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x-posting from /usapol/ https://www.livemint.com/market/commodities/wall-street-is-set-to-start-trading-in-a-new-commodity-water/amp-11600405068065.html >Wall Street is set to start trading in a new commodity: Water <CME’s contract, tied to the $1.1 billion California water market, will launch late this year,
>>902467 they're gonna suck the ogallala aquifer dry by 2030, aren't they
>>902467 <Do not become addicted to water! It will take hold of you and you will resent it's absence!-Immortan Joe
>>902467 where is flood the basins anon when you need him
>>902490 Shaytan is an enigma that does as he pleases
>>902467 this sucks but holy shit this shows they're incredibly desperate
>>902490 When you need me most, i will disappear, and you will be stuck in mad max to deal with your own problems.
>>902172 Mass propaganda. Sell a war with China as the "progressive" war. They prey on the nihilism of the young and fill them with the hope of a false justice. The Republicans might not like who's leading them but they will go along because they love the kickbacks they will get from a war economy, just like how they wanted to go headlong into Syria during the Arab Spring. They have control over the channels of digital communication. Make it "our" war, that participation in the war is a social obligation, that everyone must be in it together even when few benefit from the expense of the carnage. "If the country loses we all lose," if the country wins the horrid state of affairs continues, but "we didn't lose."
>>902467 Capital...must...expand
>>902467 Defend the people's water reserves with lethal force.
>>902467 >>902480 >>902483 read Dune prepare your self to become fremen and kick out the House of Harkonon.
>>902467 We’re immortan joe now. What a fuck hell scape are we living in.
>>902467 Yeah when they privatized water in bolivia there were huge riots and then MAS won elections for like 20 years straight, so the dialectic is moving boys
>>902608 This kind of envelope-pushing is what we kept seeing in third world shitholes. Only now that America is decaying I realize that porkies applied all that shit once restricted to foreign countries at home. They actually did turn America into a third world shithole.
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>>902608 >>902624 Nestle actually did privatize water, leading to the flint michigan dirty water crisis.
>>902506 >>902630 I've seen you around before but I can't remember. What would this accomplish for humanity in terms of stabilizing our ecological niche?
>>902650 He's basically an imbecile who doesn't understand why some parts of the planet are so dry and barren and things ecosystems are closed, isolated systems.
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>>902650 >more fishies (think of the fish in places like the salton sea which didn't exist before because it was dry) >more evaporation = more rain >more freshwater being held in reserve, rather than flowing directly into the ocean >closer proximity to population centers = more irrigation systems to farmland = more food security >more dams = more hydroelectric power = less reliance on natural gas to create electricity >more rain, closer proximity to inland areas, more stable water supplies in places like the aral sea and lake eyre = more plant growth, more wildlife, more silt = more fertile soil and water retention which means less desertification and even reversal of previous desertification >no freshwater shortages = less dying of thirst from climate change and droughts tradeoffs: <costly <would harm land-based wildlife (that doesn't adapt to things like more fish and more freshwater) and possibly bird migration patterns <could end up with polluted water if human settlements aren't cleaned up from waste and pollution (costly) <beautiful wildlife that that centered around the caspian sea would have trouble adapting to less salty water and less drought
>>902664 <beautiful wildlife that that centered around the caspian sea such as that centered around*
water = profit air = profit gravity = profit ß$Ł```^ = profit ...questions?
>>902686 literally this, please understand y'alls that capital is a machine that seeks to commodify EVERYTHING water is ridiculous, but so is like... housing, and therapy (literally talking to someone), and fucking everything. Capital seeks to mediate ALL relations. And it will not stop till everything is turned into a sterile commodity. All natural resources (including labor of course) are exploited in order to release latent value in them, and then envelop that value in the system of Capital. (though literally that part isnt important, accumulating wealth is the main goal, look how inefficient capitalism is. The goal is the eating and excreting of everything into alienated pieces ready for consumption. Nothing is off the table) Just a reminder that the existant is scary enough without having to draw lines in the sand about what the market can and cant take, or what a leader can and cant do. (tho those r fun happening moments for sure). Just we should already know that anything that can be done with gain, will be done, and we dont need to wait for it to happen to act on it.
>>902664 This is the reverse of that plan of the Mediterranean into land but it is equally as retarded.
>>902790 Tbh it doesn't seem like there's a fundamental difference between those maps and shit like the toshka lake program, the great manmade river program, aral sea revivalism, the three gorges dam, etc Only difference is that nobody was big brained to turn small scale projects into literal terraforming. Many of those proposed lakes have existed or currently exist, by the way. Lake lahontan existed before, lake eyre still exists, lake chad exists, megafezzan existed, the aral sea exists but is nowhere near as big as it should be. Even some concepts on the map are old project proposals, like filling the chotts in tunisia with seawater, or filling the qattara depression. I'm having trouble seeing any reason not to support these ideas. They certainly don't seem like atlantropa tier nonsense.
>>902787 >what the market can and cant take Thirsty people will literally kill capitalists to harvest the water in their bodies, if they go full retard with water privatization.
>>902664 One that came to my mind was lowering sea level rise too. It would be very important that all dams have wildlife ladders that aren't traumatizing to the wildlife. Fish ladders work, but I'm not convinced that those salmon cannons aren't causing adverse psychological damage to the fish. Some people here probably think I'm being absurd for even saying that but the category of sentient species seems to get larger every year and if anything's sure it's that modern science doesn't understand the mental state of most animals. This said, better safe than sorry. What if over generations those salmon lose their ability to navigate without the fish cannon and the infrastructure collapses then they just die? Or worse yet, what if they come to associate it with pain and refuse to swim up river anymore? Another thought I'm having is that understand how coastal regions could use ocean water to fill the basins. But some of these are very far inland, there would have to be comprehensive feasibility studies on given water basins.
>>902832 No. Thirsty people will kill other thirsty people while capitalists live in communities surrounded by 30 meter walls
>>902664 Stop trying to flood places niger
>>902664 if you were to create the lakes from the first picture you'd be discplacing about 8 million people. Europe couldn't handle less than 1m refugees in 2015-2016. Use your brain you fucking burger
>>902467 HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH They really are desperate, arent'they?
Watching the economy slowly fall is very comfy.
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>>903230 >Mexican farmers revolt over sending water to US during drought >Country has one month to deliver outstanding 289m cubic metres and ensure water for 14 major cities and growers
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>>903230 give em hell
>>902686 Can capital eat reality and make-believe value into being with no labor?
>>903295 >>903310 No It's like Wiley coyote running in midair At some point he looks down
>>903311 Well, of course that's gonna happen, but they're air walking right now. The collapse is inevitable, but they can speculate on it and try to get as much cash as possible before they realize that there's nothing fucking there (aka the "Tesla business model".
>>903230 >mexican revolution 2.0 but this time pancho villa and mexican proletariat wins man this might be the worst timeline but fuck this is amazing
>>903454 Finally, the Zapatistas can do something.
>>902664 change your name to floodanon
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>>903230 >Amlo has repeatedly alleged that big pecan farmers, backed by political interests, are behind the protests. “They’ve been doing their best to get us into a conflict with the United States,” Amlo recently told reporters. “It’s all a plan to take electoral advantage of the situation.” This is messed up, I can see this being true, what if they're going to coup AMLO like Vuvuzela or Chile? Could Burgerstand get away with this?
>>903537 >big pecan is a thing
>>903537 God that puppy is both scary as hell and amazing in its mechanics. What's that from?
>>902832 And this is called wishful thinking, kids.
>>903591 >puppy puppet*
>>902664 nigga, you just flooded my city
>>903537 Let's see >Amlo persists >Farmers go bust >Fascism rises >Mexico furthers spirals out of control and EZLN could see an opening to take the other half of Chiapas >Amlo Cedes >Us cities run dry >Tensions rise to boiling point >Violence ensues >Empire further destabilized It seems to me those are two win/win scenarios, at least in the short run
>>903591 >>903596 >What's that from? Couldn't say for certain was a GIF floating around /leftypol/ back when the porky meme was just catching on, but yeah its freaky as fuck, so I saved it...


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