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/leftypol/ is a non-sectarian board for leftist discussion. Join the Matrix: https://matrix.to/#/+leftychat:matrix.org Visit the Booru: https://lefty.booru.org/

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Vulture Funds Circling Chinese SOEs as Two State Owned Coal Miners Default Anonymous 11/16/2020 (Mon) 03:16:38 No. 1138718
>Vulture funds are racing to buy bonds of troubled Chinese state-owned enterprises, after a sharp sell-off sparked by a large coal mining group’s default on a Rmb1bn ($156m) debt issue. >Yongcheng Coal & Electricity, a coal miner in central Henan province, one of China’s most populous provinces with more than 95m people, defaulted on Friday. This was just weeks after Brilliance Auto, a carmaker owned by the Liaoning provincial government, announced it would not be able to repay a three-year Rmb1bn bond. >The default of the two groups has triggered a plunge in prices of state-backed corporate debt as international and onshore investors grappled with the prospect of China’s central government stepping back from its traditional role as a safety net for local government businesses. >Beijing faces a challenge in trying to manage the stress on SOEs, particularly companies controlled by provincial and municipal governments that are struggling financially during the Covid-19 pandemic. >“The central government won’t allow the situation to deteriorate as that could lead to systemic risks,” said David Huang, a Shanghai-based bond fund manager who spent Rmb20m to buy a three-year note by Brilliance Auto for 20 cents on the dollar. “That creates an investment opportunity.” >Other investors, however, viewed the defaults as a sign that government bailouts of distressed state companies, once taken for granted by most investors, could no longer be guaranteed. “Our investment decision had been based on the belief that triple-A rated state firms are safe investments regardless of their fundamentals,” said the chief ratings officer at a Shanghai-based bond fund. “That’s no longer the case.” >Investors said they were alarmed by the defaults in part because many of the SOEs had previously boasted seemingly strong fundamentals. Both Yongcheng and Brilliance received triple A ratings and each had more than Rmb20bn cash on their balance sheet, according to their most recent financial statements. >Neither company replied to requests for comments. >“What else can we trust if both the rating agencies and financial statements aren’t credible?” asked the Shanghai fund manager. >Investors were also unnerved that Yongcheng and Brilliance have spun off profitable assets before defaulting, including Brilliance’s shares in the BMW joint venture. >“This has set a bad example, that the SOEs can be as irresponsible as private firms in avoiding debt payment,” one Yongcheng creditor said. >Managers of vulture funds, which specialise in distressed assets, told the Financial Times they had placed “significant” purchase orders for bonds issued by struggling SOEs. >Vulture investors still expect regional governments to step in. “If they let Yongcheng or Brilliance go under, no state firms in Henan or Liaoning will ever be able to tap the bond market again,” said Mr Huang. “The government won’t let that happen.” https://web.archive.org/web/20201116030940/https://www.ft.com/content/4ab1ffea-1f97-4dee-a938-0a825a025ef1
I read it on Naked Capitalism too. In the end China's government has two bad choices: >allow the free market to work and allow the companies to die or be bought by Americans who will run them into the ground as they did back home (there is an entire fiscal services industry devoted to this). This is done by leveraging the company as collateral for margin stock trading, which is extremely dangerous but remember this is capitalism >intervene and print money until everyone is paid They'll do option #2 but this is not sustainable. Either the US gets mad over currency deflation or the company condition does not improve as it's assets dwindle in value. Maintenance is a big deal with these sorts of operations, as is modernization. If the company is only just surviving and cannot afford to cycle out old equipment they will become economically noncompetitive. Eventually investors step out and they're near bankruptcy again. Even if the PRC simply gives them new equipment, investors will just leverage the company even more (if not sell the equipment outright as it is valuable) and recreate the bankruptcy again. Disturbingly the same goes for their state oil company and one wonders how much money they'd have to burn before Beijing can't pay it off. Because again, the point of vulture capitalism is to leverage good assets against the bad and have other people throw their good money at the whole kit until you've made your profit and can cleanly exit. Many defunct companies have gone through this process: Sears is the most recent although they are on the other side of the value chain.
>>1138793 Basically, what I'm saying is that this has only one plausible conclusion and that is total failure of the operation and everyone losing their jobs/pension. Which is what capitalism fundamentally is.
>>1138764 the bmw is a boojmobile and you know it
>>1138798 >He doesn't know You can buy them for cheap after they depreciate and enjoy exquisite driving dynamics
>>1138804 corvettes/camaros/most gm four doors built after 1995 do the same and are cheaper
>>1138718 And that’s why you can’t build socialism when you give the private sector so much leeway under Dengism. When your entire superstructure relies on the base of bourgeois economics, they would be the ones that have leverage over you, not the other way around. This is basic dialectical materialism. At least this would unite the Neo-Maoists over there into being against Xi’s idiotic centrism and idealism of bureaucratic control.
>>1138718 Chinease corportate debt (includes both private, publicaly, and mixed ownership companies) is one of the highest in the world, this was comming from a mile away.
>>1138848 The problem in this case isn't private sector leeway (thats a problem in different areas of the economy, but not in this scenario) the problem is that state owned companies are allowed very large amounts of autonomy from the the economic plans which results in many of them taking on unsustainable levels of debt. Chinese SOE are some of the most indebted companies on Earth.
>tfw the covid recession will be turned into a depression by a chienase debt bubble
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>Update: facing a potentially calamitous liquidity shortage, China buckled and despite hawkish commentary from its central bankers, moments ago the PBOC announced that it would offer a whopping 800 billion in MLF, which was not only vastly greater than the CNY 200BN whisper number, but was 200 billion more than the currently maturing MLF amount of 600 billion, indicating that what PBOC Deputy Governor Liu Guoqiang said recently when he warned that exiting easing measures was "a matter of time" and "necessary," was just a jawboning placeholder, and with China finding itself in a funding scramble, the PBOC not only delivered but left quite a bit of liquidity on top. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/traders-edge-china-faces-900-billion-funding-shortage#comment_stream looks like the PRC is copying the fed's money printer stratagy
>>1138857 They pretty much pioneered the gig economy model of promising monopoly status when there is none to get more funding that western scammers so fond of using now. They basically try to out-compete local businesses in the global south, buying them off or making the local government so indebted that they’re forced to give Chinese SOEs monopoly in those countries. It’s really similar to early German empire ideas on expanding their sphere of influence which was proven to not be sustainable in the long run.
>>1139225 This isn't true. Most of the companies investing abroad are private companies and the only time the scenario you describe happened was in Sri Lanka. Other than that, the whole "debt trap" narrative is a debunked State Department talking point. Plus this has nothing to do with the thread. Please contain your autism, Vietanon
>>1138798 typical response from a typical pseudocommy retard. they are boojmobile but they ride in everyone's roads, ruining them.
>>1139268 >how Chinese SOEs get into the position that they have to be saved by private enterprises like now <not related What?
>>1138899 >China starts the poomp earlier than forecasted So we're heading towards a period of good growth boosted by the poomp after which stagnation will ensue and the PRC will find itself deprived of monetary policy tools (kinda like 2016-2019 Us), all while growth keeps slowing in the rest of the world. Is the world economy breaking down?
>>1139662 Oh it's going to be far worse. If China starts the poomp the West will accuse it of currency manipulation and threaten or impose punitive tariffs even if the poomp is the only thing propping up the global financial system, accelerating the dump. China can either let the market fall, or let the market fall faster.
>>1139662 This will also increase privatization of Chinese soe. Especially for firms owned by local of providential level governments. This is because the firms that defaulted were defaulting on AAA rated bonds which is the highest rating a financial asset can have. AAA means that their is little to no risk in owing it. Many providence and municipal governments had little capital to invest into their state owned firms, so those firms issued bonds. Which were bought by investors because the were rated AAA. Because they were considered "low-rsik" they debt that these companies raised was low interest. But now with the default on AAA bonds, Chinese state owed firm bonds are no longer considered secure or safe investments. This means that these firms will be able to take out less debt and the debt they can get will be of a much higher interest.
>>1140400 fyi AAA rated financial assets actually being risky investments is what caused the 2008 recession
>>1140400 This in turn will slow their investment bringing them to lose competitivity and to be BTFO by private competition, thereby accelerating the privatization of the economy and weakening the primacy of the State in the Economy. This is why you shouldn't play around with markets in building socialism.
>>1138793 nah the state can just let these fail, create new ones, use the same equipment and show a middle finger to the private investors
>>1140653 That's not how finance works, because of these defaults state corporate debt is viewed as a risky investment and as such when getting a loan, state owned firms will have to pay higher interest rates.
>>1140687 China won't need loans or money where they're going
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>>1140400 >this will lead to further privatization I'm hearing this every year and it never happens. Massive cope
>>1140739 China has literal superpowers and can transcend how capitalism works. It's true, I read it on the internet.
>>1140752 >Public sector is left rotting <Private groups take its place This is basically the same as privatization, the only difference its it being covert instead of aggressively State sanctioned
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https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinas-bond-market-turmoil-worsens-more-state-owned-companies-default >Local traders were incredulous: "Our investment decision had been based on the belief that triple-A rated state firms are safe investments regardless of their fundamentals,” said the chief ratings officer at a Shanghai-based bond fund. “That’s no longer the case." >Still, some maintained hope that this was a one off event: "The central government won’t allow the situation to deteriorate as that could lead to systemic risks," said a hopeful David Huang, a Shanghai-based bond fund manager who spent 20 million yuan to buy a three-year note by Brilliance Auto for 20 cents on the dollar. "That creates an investment opportunity" he added hoping that the PBOC would do what the Fed did in March and backstop the distressed issuers. >"If they let Yongcheng or Brilliance go under, no state firms in Henan or Liaoning will ever be able to tap the bond market again," said Mr Huang. "The government won’t let that happen." >Perhaps... although as Bloomberg strategist Ye Xie wrote last night, the Yongcheng default inevitably raises the question of who's the next to fall. >We got an answer just hours later, a top Chinese chipmaker and a major car manufacturer announced debt defaults on Monday, expanding a list of distressed state-linked firms that have roiled China’s credit market in recent days. >According to Bloomberg, Tsinghua Unigroup said it wasn’t able to to repay a 5.6%, 1.3 billion yuan ($197 million) privately issued onshore bond due Monday, citing tight liquidity and after failing to win immediate approval from creditors to delay full repayment on the note. As we noted on Sunday, Brilliance Auto Group Holdings, a Chinese automaker linked to BMW, also announced that it has defaulted on 6.5 billion yuan ($987 million) of debt. >Backed by the prestigious Tsinghua University, Unigroup said it will keep raising funds to repay investors the bond’s principal and interest. According to Bloomberg, the chipmaker’s bonds tumbled since late October, crashing from par to just 25 cents, after its decision not to buy back a privately issued 6.5%, 1 billion yuan perpetual bond triggered concerns about its repayment abilities. Worries about Unigroup’s finances and fate have persisted since two years ago, when Beijing ordered education providers to distance themselves from commercial operations.
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FFFFFFUCCKK i HATE PORKY SO GOD DAMN MUCH
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Fucking burst already. I said FUCKING BURST AAAAAAAAAAAAAAGGGGGHHHHH
>>1140637 >weakening the primacy of the State in the Economy. Didn't they abandon this principle under Ziang Zemin?
>>1138804 >enjoy exquisite driving dynamics I have your name on /o/, faggot. more autistic posts about kraut shitboxes are not needed here
>>1140754 china is already not 100 % bound to the law of value and soon they will abolish the remnants of capitalism in their economy
>>1140954 the west has been screaming that china is on the brink of collapse since 1949
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>>1138848 You can't build socialism full stop
>>1140739 >>China won’t need loans or money where they’re going
>>1140762 Except that the public sector isn't rotting, in fact its role has been strengthened under Xi.
>>1141500 Too late, Jiang already blew up the tracks.
>>1141012 Here's the horrifying reality: it won't collapse, it will be privatized by the nomenklatura.
>>1141681 Yes, but eventually capitalism will collapse there as it will in other places.
>>1141500 if it isn't rotting why is unable to pay off its debt?
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Exclusive: Tsinghua Unigroup Fails to Extend $197 Million Bond Payment https://outline.com/XD22GW >Chinese electronic chipmaker Tsinghua Unigroup failed to win creditor approval for a rollover of 1.3 billion yuan ($197 million) of bonds that came due Sunday, making it another state-owned company facing default. >Several investors told Caixin that they didn’t receive payment on the bonds. Unigroup didn’t immediately respond to a Caixin request for comment. The default extends a series of credit shocks involving state-owned enterprises. >In a meeting with bondholders Friday hosted by underwriter Bank of Shanghai, Unigroup proposed to repay 100 million yuan of principal and extend the balance by six months. >Though more than 86% of bondholders agreed to the rollover terms, lawyers from Dacheng Law Offices who witnessed the meeting said the convening procedures were not in accordance with relevant rules, making the resolution invalid, Caixin learned from exclusive sources with knowledge of the meeting. >More than 86% of bondholders agreed to a proposal to hold the creditor meeting ahead of schedule. But lawyers found that the proposal didn’t comply with requirements of the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors (NAFMII), China’s interbank bond market regulator, which requires such a proposal shall be valid only if it is accepted by unanimous vote of all holders present at the meeting. >Two of Unigroup’s big creditors, China International Capital Corp. (CICC) and Huatai Securities, voted against the rollover, Caixin learned from the exclusive sources. They said the rollover wouldn’t solve the debt repayment problem because they haven’t seen information on how Unigroup would repay the borrowings, people familiar with the matter said. >Tsinghua Unigroup, founded by China’s prestigious Tsinghua University in Beijing, is a key player in China’s national push for self-reliance in semiconductors. The company obtains solid support from the state in developing its chip business. >China Chengxin International Credit Rating downgraded Unigroup to AA from AAA, citing its uncertain ability to repay debt as the company faces significant pressure raising funds and as there was no material progress in its strategic restructuring. >Unigroup’s liabilities totaled 52.78 billion yuan, more than 60% of which is short-term, at the end of September, compared with a cash level of 4 billion yuan, according to Chengxin. The company faces maturing debt of 1.3 billion yuan and $450 million by the end of the year, with an additional 5.1 billion yuan and $1.05 billion of bonds to either mature or be bought back during the first half of next year. >CIB Research said in a report that Unigroup’s debt challenge is not a short-term liquidity problem but a sustainable operations problem caused by high leverage and limited operating income. The company would need a large capital injection from strategic investors or a debt reorganization to substantially improve its capital structure, the report found. >In response to the liquidity crisis, Unigroup Sunday night pledged half of its stake in subsidiary Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co. Ltd. to Bank of Beijing in exchange for a guarantee of a 10 billion yuan credit line from the bank. The stock pledge is just a supplementary procedure on existing credit, and Bank of Beijing didn’t provide new loans to Unigroup, Caixin learned. Bank of Beijing didn’t immediately respond to a Caixin request for comment.
>>1141689 Or turn into neo-feudalism.
>>1141817 Oh shit, oh shit, the CCP has made developing a semiconductor industry one of their top priorities, letting a semiconductor firm go bankrupt means that this is serious. A default wave is becoming likely, and if that happens then all hell breaks lose because if the Chinese economy goes under then the entire world (including china) will have a lost decade, perhaps even a lost generation.
>>1143387 Guess what: the faction that wants to undermine Xi, and Marxism-Leninism, now has the perfect opening to create a crisis and concede to the West with the loss of Trump and the incoming Biden administration.
>>1141785 cuz they took on too much debt, which they are now unable to repay due to a huge downturn because of COVID
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>>1138718 >PRIVATISATION TIME
>>1140687 you have a naive view of finance, wiping your debt and starting over is completely viable for a state; provided your immediate lender can't send an army to force you to pay
>>1143696 or they can go fuck it and go full planning dont disappoint dengists
>>1143696 >Guess what: the faction that wants to undermine Xi, and Marxism-Leninism, now has the perfect opening to create a crisis and concede to the West with the loss of Trump and the incoming Biden administration. Shock doctrine to loot the Chinese state ? do they want to join this guy https://plataformamedia.com/en/2020/11/06/china-condemns-former-hengfeng-bank-president-to-death-penalty-for-corruption/ >>1156701 >fuck it and go full planning happy-thoughts, but this isn't a rupture, no happenings
>>1156701 except it is the state sector going bankrupt >>1156698 thats not how things work under capitalism
>>1156793 no matter how many people get charged for corruption, it never stops
>>1156794 states don't go bankrupt, state-companies don't have to either and the rules of capitalism don't apply in China if they contradict stability. >>1156796 >no matter how many people get charged for corruption, it never stops if they keep pulling them out of the economy they never reach critical mass
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>>1139268 >Another Dengoid triggered by based Vietanon Image related
>>1156845 How can vietnam trigger a dengist when vietnam is dengist?
>>1141067 >"Socialism is whatever we want it to be" t. Dengoid version of Karl Marx When will you stop abusing that quote out of context to justify everything under the sun?
>>1156847 >Every person in a country is reflective of their country's government's ideology What did you mean with this
>>1156847 I would be considered a “radical bolshevik” in the party for supporting too much nationalization and international involvement. Not everyone in a party is monolithic in their leftism.
>>1156807 idealism.png >>1156854 are you a party member?
>>1157638 >reifying money
>>1138793 >The chinese government has to choose between selling it off or giving them free money Or, you know, they just buy all the stock? And the restructure the assets and companies?
>>1158709 They already own it on paper anon
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>>1158916 Then whats the problem Just sell pay the workers and contractors their salary with state money, get them new jobs, and """sell""" the assets to other state owned companies if they are so insistent on pretending to be a market company.
>>1158926 well they clearly aren't doing that
>>1157638 Yes. Been one for years. Remember posting my card every time krautanon got his autism on. >>1158926 It’s not that simple because the state under such circumstances operate not on the theoretical principles but on the real market realities. In paper that government owns all the real estate and business but in reality that just make the rights to appropriate and exchange the usage of those property into an equal of actual ownership in the west. The government is not omnipresent and omnipotent even in red socdem countries. The moment you try those measures, it will cause chaos in equal to Tiananmen with shit tons of low level party members outing themselves as full fledge liberals and petit bourgeois counter revolutionaries. That’s the biggest down side of Xi’s “anti corruption” campaign, even if it truly does what it said (which is never the case), it will just be an idealistic stop-gap without solving the primary material reasons for corruption: the capitalist economy itself. Xi’s economic policies is nothing new here. It’s pretty much a direct copy of our previous administration under Dũng over here with the same plans to develop provincial SOEs and the same shitting the bed with rampant defaults.
>>1158990 >>1158983 Well thats fucking dumb. Guess anti-dengists are right once more.
>>1157638 He posted like a picture of some party propaganda and passed it off as a membership card IIRC
>>1158926 the soe that are going bankrupt are owned by providence level governments that are also bankrupt
>>1158926 the soe that are going bankrupt are owned by providence level governments that are also bankrupt
>>1138850 this is what happens when you reach the limits of keynesianism i guess
>>1159368 Keynesian economics causes huge debt defaults every few years. They still never solved the problem after 50 years of never ending NEP. >>1159053 >reee why don’t you post the front of your party card Kys glowie.
>>1138793 Option #3 - default on debts and change your development model by shifting away from FDI to state investment. Reduce SOEs autonomy by allowing them financing only from a special state bank. Give enterprises production targets based on a calculated plan. Subsidise unprofitable enterprises that nonetheless produce vital production from the profits of profitable enterprises. But as you can see this would reqire a political will to get the hands dirty. It's much easier to just let the vital enterprise go under, restructure its debt and privatize parts of it.
>>1159404 >Option #3 - default on debts and change your development model by shifting away from FDI to state investment. Reduce SOEs autonomy by allowing them financing only from a special state bank. They already did this in the 1990s. >In the late 1990s, following a boom and bust in government-directed lending, China’s banking sector was technically insolvent, with bad loans making up as much as 40 per cent of lenders’ portfolios, according to independent analysts. >To deal with the problem, Beijing established Huarong and three other “asset management companies” – Orient, Great Wall and Cinda – to take Rmb1.4tn of bad loans off the banks’ books. >The government then injected hundreds of billions of renminbi in fresh capital into the banks, sold stakes to foreign investors and eventually listed all of them in Hong Kong, although Beijing retains majority stakes and control of the lenders. https://archive.is/gnxR1 >Give enterprises production targets based on a calculated plan. They don't want to do this to avoid micromanagement, thus giving provincial governments the vague target of GDP. >Subsidise unprofitable enterprises that nonetheless produce vital production from the profits of profitable enterprises. They are already doing this, it has become a problem because many legacy firms are no longer competitive in export and have insufficient demand without excess government spending.
Why are people talking about debt with Keynesianism? Wasn't Keynes about taxing the rich to fund things?
>>1159505 Yes but neo-Keynesians are retarded shills for the banks.
>>1159502 Option #4: Let the Neo-maoists come to power. Purge both the Xist centrists and the right wing liberals. Start nationalization while actually funding communists abroad.
>>1159313 >>1159314 then the central government should step in and fix it
>>1160058 This, we need funding.
>>1160118 They’re not an omnipresent god. Saying the government will fix it is like saying let the fed bail you out will fix the inherent problems with trying to create un-material policies to stop capitalism from going into its inherent dơnturn cycle. China is just like any other social democratic country. They still have huge pressure for privatization and just saying “Xi based 7d checkers” won’t make it go away in the times of global economic depression. Peak American coping.
>>1160187 Well they either try something actually socialist or let an entire municipality fail doesnt seem like a hard choice to me, but it just shows what xi is really made of.
>>1159404 the chinease state does not have enough capital to make up for the losses in private lenders, and the RMB isn't a reserve currency so they can't just print infinite amounts of money >>1159505 Keyns was against taxees as he though it reduced economic growth >>1160368 if they go full socialist they lose private capital from pumping into their economy to pay for the rapid growth
>>1160058 The based but tragically suppressed option.
>>1159313 About half the Chinese SOEs lose money
>>1159502 >They already did this in the 1990s. No, what I'm proposing is completely cutting away SOEs from the rest of financial system, and establishing a separate financial contour for SOEs. Defaulting on debts obviously means an end to borrowing in capital markets, because nobody would lend them capital anymore. >They don't want to do this to avoid micromanagement, thus giving provincial governments the vague target of GDP. This is one of the lessons from the soviet union: you need in kind targets, gross monetary targets lead to waste, or at least gross monetary maximization targets lead to waste, not so sure about monetary minimisation targets. >They are already doing this, it has become a problem because many legacy firms are no longer competitive in export and have insufficient demand without excess government spending. Then make them competitive by tariffs on competive goods and taxes on private sector. How painfull this process would be really depends on the degree of self-sufficiancy of the complex of chinese SOEs, if they have full production cycle covered then maybe they can do it without another tyananmen
>>1161157 >Then make them competitive by tariffs on competive goods and taxes on private sector More tariffs don't make sense anon. First, they already have tariffs on priority sectors like technology to encourage import substitution. Second, China has a trade surplus meaning it doesn't import much except what it absolutely needs like food. Lastly, they don't have the usual developing country problem of being flooded by finished goods from overseas, rather they have too much supply for a world with insufficient demand. Taxes in private sector are blocked by business interests in the party who advocate for a neoliberal low-tax, low-safety net regime. One of the core examples of this is they have blocked reform of the hukou household registration system that prevents a rural worker in the city from receiving unemployment benefits from the province in which they are employed and pay taxes into.
>>1138811 Lmao yankee
Very interesting thread, does anybody know what this looks like on the ground? I know that coal -IS- Chinese energy so what are the effects on the average Chinese citizen? How are the coal miners/
>>1161511 They got bailouts. The hedge funds are betting that if they buy the debt of failing SOEs they will get a share of the bailout. It works until it doesn't because they will keep amplifying the conditions of the crisis to get more money.
>>1161511 Very frequent wild cat strikes. However the organizers are very split with infighting between the neo-maoists, the Xistsand the western-NGOs-backed Solidarity fags happening all the time.

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