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The Levy Institute assumes the economy is a rainbow, and concludes that debt forgiveness is a free pot of gold. Anonymous 09/09/2020 (Wed) 14:20:51 No. 853532 [Reply] [Last]
www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/rpr_2_6.pdf >According to the Levy Institute paper, authored by economists Scott Fullwiler, Stephanie Kelton, Catherine Ruetschlin, and Marshall Steinbaum, canceling all student debt would increase GDP by between $86 billion and $108 billion per year, over the next decade. This would add between 1.2 and 1.5 million jobs to the economy, and reduce the unemployment rate by between 0.22 and 0.36 percent. Oh man, those are big numbers. And we're basically already at full employment. How on earth are they getting those numbers? Let's find out! Looks like they have four main modeling scenarios. Two Fair (note: not actually fair. Named after a Dr. Fair) models and two Moody's models. The Moody's model is like a middle ground between a pure VAR regression model and a DSGE style of model. Nothing super interesting or controversial, I guess, beyond that <Macro forecasting is on the borderline of being badeconomics in and of itself But fine. The Fair model... let's see... ummm... >Whereas the Moody’s model has a self-described “Classical core”—or long-run assumptions based upon estimated supplyside fundamentals—to complement a more “Keynesian” short run, the Fair model is more traditionally Keynesian throughout. In contrast to the Moody’s model, Fair’s econometric studies have rejected the so-called nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) dynamics. To be more precise, Fair finds that the more accurate relationship between inflation and unemployment is nonlinear, whereby inflation is not very responsive to unemployment rates across a wide range, but could become much steeper at very low unemployment rates, perhaps around 2 percent (that is, at very low unemployment rates, inflation could rise substantially). To be clear, though, with so few real-world observations, Fair’s econometric studies were not able to entirely confirm or reject the likelihood of a steep rise in inflation at very low unemployment rates (Fair 2013, 147–60). So the Fair model basically denies that NAIRU exists. It concedes that maaaaaybe around 2% unemployment you might see some inflation, but that basically you can just keep lowering U3 without ever hitting bottom. Full employment at 4% isn't really a thing, you can always go deeper. This is pretty far from standard macroeconomics as far as I'm aware. So the paper looks at two Fair models and two Moody's models. Both Fair and Moody's have a version where the Fed sees the stimulative action taken and reacts, and one where the Fed is asleep does nothing. Pic related is the results of the four models Unsurprisingly, the Fair models show big effects either way. If you assume that full employment isn't a thing and NAIRU is a dirty lie until 2% or lower, then stimulus is stimulative. Who knew? The Moody's model shows big effects if the Fed is asleep. If the Fed is awake, as they tend to be, then the effects are relatively tiny. I wonder what's a more realistic assumption - that a Fed with 4% unemployment is jumpy about inflation, or that they'll just ignore a gigantic stimulus? If you take the most realistic scenario, this is something like 20B per year GDP growth - about a tenth of a percent. Probably not different from statistical noise given the complexity of the models we're working with here. Is that the estimate that makes it into the abstract? hahahahahahahaha no.

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>>853532 >The headline numbers in the abstract come from a model that assumes NAIRU doesn't exist this is true though
>>874585 >There's an element of validity to it but it also leaves out crucial sectors of the economy, like the simple fact that tax money doesn't just vanish into the ether and never get used again the way every conservative economist tries to pretend it does. Well, it does not disappear when it's local taxes, but taxes paid to a government that produces fiat currency really does just get shoveled into a fire.
>>874982 I remember hearing this, possibly from Keen, if in the US you pay your taxes using cash, the feds will just burn the cash.
>>874985 Yes. The IRS has no use for any of the money that it receives. When a government that can produce fiat currency charges taxes, the point is not to collect a pile of treasure but rather to create a specific need, a use-value, for that currency. That is why agencies like the IRS do not try to maximize the amount that they collect. Unlike financial institutions, they do not want any more money than people are obliged by law to pay (state and local tax boards will still try to fuck you over, though). They are more than happy to allow old debts to disappear and even to provide hand-outs, free money that they couch as "refundable tax credits." They don't give a damn about collecting a currency that is worthless to them (bear in mind Marx's concept of social use-values). They only care about ensuring compliance with tax laws, which are sufficient to create need.
>>875040 Never thought about this actually! Good post.

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on some myths abt Nazis Anonymous 09/17/2020 (Thu) 03:12:40 No. 874897 [Reply] [Last]
Prescott Bush and Harriman weren't 'funding Hitler', they were hiding Fritz Thyssen's money from the Germans after he sold out, Germany nationalized his company, and threw him in jail. The Union Banking Corporation was set up in 1924, long before Hitler was in charge of anything, to manage Thyssen's investments in America. So if they did anything, they sat on his money to keep making money off it instead of turning it over to the US government. Gee, that's crazy that bankers would do that, huh. Has anyone else figured this out before? Nobody just reads a sequence of events and then gathers from that what went on, they drop the sequence of events and give you a narrative. The other part of this Thyssen thing is the 'I Paid Hitler' book wasn't written by Thyssen, it was written by Churchill's literary agent Emery Reves. E.S.T. And in case anyone is wondering, yes, I am implying that the CIA & its forbears the OSS crafted a cover story (incidentally entirely after the fact) for what amounted to disastrous (nearly World-breaking) U.S. foreign interference in ostensibly allied sovereign nations I have nothing more to say, now go brush your teeth
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>>874983 >mises.org legitimately braindead imagine thinking that a wartime economy is a fair test of an economy's true character, by this standard Amerikkka became communist when FDR went for total war mobilization lolberts are genuinely retarded also very nice of this article to quote ADAM FUCKING TOOZE WHO LITERALLY DEDICATED AN ENTIRE CHAPTER POINTING OUT HOW BUSINESS WAS PROFITING OFF THE NAZI REGIME but Mises.org just calmly ignores all of that. Go figure.
>>874993 >legitimately braindead imagine thinking that a wartime economy is a fair test of an economy's true character I should say the same to any communist. Imagine thinking there would be a Capitalist fourth reich had they won WW2, a regressing feudal Reich maybe but not a Capitalist one
>>874997 >private property >stock markets >commodity production >wage labour >not a capitalist economy >but a feudal one insane. kys because you are obviously too dumb to participate in politics.
>>875002 didn't he force peasants to stay on their land? didn't the state decide prices? wasn't all of that, cough, during the war...
>>875009 yes it was called Reichserbhofgesetz

If he dies.. Anonymous 09/14/2020 (Mon) 21:33:17 No. 868585 [Reply] [Last]
What's the chance that if picrel dies (heart attack/stroke), the qoomers go nuts and claim that he was assassinated by the deep state/satanists/etc rather than being a 75 year old man who eats greasy fast food every single day.
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>>873028 its closer to 25%-30% of the republican base
>>873032 I highly doubt that, not even the tea party got that relevant. They just have so much relative sway with the Republicans because their base is so small and reliant on voter suppression that any big break-away faction would end them.
>>869741 *McThought
>>869741 >By the burger was this country forged. >By the burger shalt it be unmade. Poetic
>>868585 >Mike “Sucked a chode? here's an electrode” Pence >Mike "Popular vote, meet the popular volt" Pence >Mike "It's the (alternating current year)" Pence >Mike “Hit this dyke with a lighting strike” Pence >Mike "Ass full of juice, face full of Zeus" Pence >Mike "If you're a queen I'll zap your peen" Pence >Mike "Dick in your chasm? Prepare to spasm" Pence >Mike "Like 'em gay, taste electric railway" Pence >Mike “If you like cock, prepare for a shock” Pence >Mike "Closing gay chapters with AC adapters" Pence >Mike "Enemies of Trump Better Learn to Jump" Pence >Mike "Shooting Binge Shall Not Be Infringed" Pence >Mike "Cum on your face, to hell you'll race" Pence >Mike "Cross two dicks, cross the river styx" Pence >Mike "CTR's Starving Because he's Lee >Marvin" Pence >Mike "Electron surge for those with the urge" Pence

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Would you say Napoleon was good or evil? Anonymous 09/16/2020 (Wed) 15:37:48 No. 873215 [Reply] [Last]
Was he a historical hero or historical villain?
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>>874329 Also Napoleon put down a royal uprising not a proletarian one to protect the directory from a reactionary revival after the Terror slackened with the Thermidorean reaction. Nappy’s whiff of grapeshot BTFO them https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/13_Vend%C3%A9miaire
>>873570 The means of production didnt really change under napoleon, some parts of norther and eastern france did develop industry but nothing like England was experiencing at the time. France would remain a peasant country until the 20th century
>>873800 No they didn't. Only Saint Juste did. Robespierre did not admire it as much and his famous speech on political virtue said that he did not want to model France “in the Spartan mold”. The Jacobins had lots of different ideas and influences outside antiquity and to hone in on this fact is a caricature. You sounds like Benjamin Constant in his “Liberties: Ancient and Modern”
>>873832 He was obsessed with Glory though. An ideological trait of Bonapartism is love of individual and national glory as embodied by Bonaparte’s military victories
>>873867 Was Napoleon rural gang?

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Why do /pol/acks like to use this ''fren'' image Anonymous 09/09/2020 (Wed) 22:09:51 No. 854607 [Reply] [Last]
why do they depict themselves as chubby and ugly little frogs?
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>>854997 definitely a bot
>>854981 >CIA and Soviet KGB were allies lol
>>855573 please stop being a pseude retard
>>854981 >posts from readlinkola even fascists and neonazis on twitter think this guy is a retard
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>>854975 fash*ids can't read

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So...are you anon's going to raise your children to be communists? Anonymous 09/13/2020 (Sun) 04:51:13 No. 863526 [Reply] [Last]
pic unrelated
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Yeah ill try. My biggest fear is my kid becoming a faggot fascist frogposter on 4chan.
>>864619 ??? who are the weak and strong men ITT? >>864647 kek
>>864581 >except this time they are arguing that you must have children in order to indoctrinate them and eventually send them into the meat grinder that is failing capitalism + climate catastrophe That's actually a much more widely shared belief than you'd think. I was raised as a catholic and this ideolegeme of "our good stock must outbreed the bad stock" is rampant. In fact, our fucking right wing government follows this same "reasoning" in its "family starting aid" policy: they give aid to wealthier families and nothing to the poorer families. They literally think that they found a loophole in capitalism so when the wealthy finally outbreeds the poor then poverty, inequality, "le dumb uneducated proles" will be eradicated in a few generations.
>>863702 F U E R A A N T I N A T A L I S T A

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Anonymous 09/16/2020 (Wed) 01:09:02 No. 871902 [Reply] [Last]
>be recent college graduate >make 75k/year, after taxes/rent/bills/grocery I have maybe 2.5k left over >live pretty frugally, don't go out to eat that much, cook a lot of my meals, make my own coffee, live in the suburbs (1.2k rent for a solo apartment), budget appropriately and hold off on buying shit if it breaks my budget. Right now at 1.3k left over due to buying some language learning services and a new laptop >still feel like I'm barely getting by, can't afford to buy all the nice things I need unless I dip into my savings How the fuck do people who get paid less live a decent life? I feel like I barely make enough to have a comfortable existence, any less and my quality in life would make me seriously depressed. For that matter, my salary is above average for my area. I don't even live in an expensive city either (Houston), how do people in bigger, more expensive cities do it? God forbid you're on minimum wage, you're absolutely fucked in that case. America is so fucked for poor people it's insane...
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a bloo bloo general
Anchored for blogposting.
>>872910 >buy food >go to self checkout >punch in code 4011 >weigh item chad banana code
>>871902 Bruh 1.5k left over is pretty sweet. Do you not have a car? Also, do you just work and go home and that's all you do? You do visit local nature conserves and regional/parks right? I would say sublet or something if you want more savings but 1.5k should be enough to put into retirement.
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>>871902 That's craZy bro. I work at walmart and make $16,000 a year, no benefits. I get food stamps and get money back (about $1200) when i file taxes which i do for free. I live with my mom but im 31. I cant afford to rent. Everyone makes fun of me for driving a beat down 1999 toyota corolla but she runs fine. I paid $700 for it. The radiator is cracked so i add water every day. She has no inner or outer door handles so i dont even need to lock doors, only i know how to get in. The windows dont work but it has a/c. There's no radio, it works but the speakers dont. I cant afford any of the fixes. I'm also $66,000 in debt and im trying to plan my bankruptcy or see if i can work out a deal that way i can go back to university (pell grant wont cover me). LOL. Sounds like you made some shitty mistakes in life OP. Why did you even bother with it all. Im here living it up almost the same as you, possibly even better LOL. I smoke weed everyday. No woman wants me but i'm sure you're lonely as fuck too but life is so chill.

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This kills the gommie Anonymous 09/14/2020 (Mon) 19:07:45 No. 868152 [Reply] [Last]
So you like Communism, kid? Well try and come up with a counterargument for this: MARX FAILED TO CONSIDER
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>>868163 Its literally over.
>>868176 climate change is the material basis for socialism. capitalism appears to win, but its inevitable collapse exhausts the world's capitalist superpowers, allowing for socialist movements to become widespread and overtrhow the decrepit corpose of capitalism. after this, the remaining resources are carefully managed as the capitalists and bourgs are deprived of their power, becoming after some point little more than just more members of the proletariat... eventually, a communist society arises either through violence or as a necessary byproduct of socialism, perhaps having to do with the state. then we into space and no longer have to worry about wrecking biospheres anymore because we can build banks orbitals out of space dust, and we can mine the sun n sheeeit
>>873079 Birthrate propaganda? Never watched it cuz it looked like haremshit, could you explain?
>>868785 >state mandated trap girlfriends BASED????
>>874175 Japs don't have any kids so I think he mans it was trying to get Japs to have kids.

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I'm a cockshott fan but this isn't the place. jannies please bumplock. This should be contained to the Cockshott/Cybersocialism General thread. saged and hidden
He got filtered

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Time Value of Money Anonymous 09/16/2020 (Wed) 18:52:09 No. 873630 [Reply] [Last]
One of the things Austrian critics of the LTV and modern finance theory have in common is the idea that money made on interest is not just extractive exploitation but is compensation for the 'time value of money'. Let me explain. According to finance theory, money now is worth more than money later. Because you can use money now to invest in something or spend, getting for example 100$ right now is worth less than getting $100 in three years, even with no inflation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Present_value example: a Business invests $25k in a project (C0) that earns $30k over 3 years. But you could have used that money to earn 5% on a stonk/loan/whatever. So the $30k revenue is actually only worth about $27k in today's dollars. So you are only making 2.2k not 5k because you're accounting for the time value of money. And according to them this is why charging interest on loans is justified, because its just equal compensation for the time value of money from the lender's perspective. How does /leftypol/ address this? Is there such a thing as time value of money or is this just made up booj nonsense to justify rents/interest? How does this square with the LTV?
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>>873834 We have different conceptions of freedom, we envision a positive type of freedom in which there is a reduction in hunger, want, an ability to do certain things with our labor by the strictures of the market dominated society (perhaps we believe this wrongly, but still). Libertarian apologists take all those stricutres as inevitable, 'natural' givens and conceive only in a negative type of freedom against society itself. It conceives as every transaction as being axiomatically 'voluntary' even to absurdity. Signed a contract under duress to enslave yourself because otherwise you might drown? It's voluntary, you chose not to die. Also contemporary society is not driven by voluntary exchange and interactions that is fucking laughable, even Austrians know this although they blame the state for producing cronyism. Also forcing corporations, possibly the most genuinely authoritarian, bureaucratic institutions in existence right now to be more democratic is not 'anti-democratic'. They force us to labor a certain way through backing from the state, we will respond with implied violence or at the very least organized resistance in kind. There is no contradiction except to voluntaryists whose conceptions of what is voluntary is whatever social norms exist, they have no conception of cooercion of any sort. Any corporate boss is free to no longer be a corporate boss if they don't want workers or the state from intervening in their everyday decision making -- it's voluntary after all.
>>873834 >In a society primarily driven by voluntary exchange and interactions If you can make such a society real, than please sign me up. >To me this appears to undermine the principles of a liberal democracy founded on self-determination and individual sovereignty, >muh principles It really doesn't mean shit if a Coca-Cola™ militia is allowed to kill labor leaders in Colombia without reprimand, unless you argue that the labor leaders were in a one sided voluntary exchange of bullets with Coca-Cola. This is the normal state of affairs since day 1 of liberal capitalism btw. Capitalism has been enforced since forever via violent means. Better off countries that support themselves on the backs of third world labor might not have had it so bad, but even then, google any country together with "violent protest" to see Capital enforce itself, non-voluntarily, onto the people. Worse off countries, I'm sure you know, get fucked by a myriad of things, but are basically kept poor, violent, and corrupt, for profit purposes.
>>874031 Shoulda spammed epig helicopter memes then like the rest of em.


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